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September 30, 2024
DOW: 42,177
S&P: 5,732
Nasdaq: 18,106
10YR T-Note: 3.783%
Bitcoin: 63,650
VIX: 16.97
Gold: $2,655.20
Crude Oil: $68.77
Prices Current as of 11:41 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
U.S. stocks closed another record-setting week with a muted performance Friday, as hope built that the U.S. economy can manage the rare feat of suppressing high inflation and not causing a recession in the process.
The Dow was the big winner with a 138 point closing advance to a new record high of 42,313 led by the likes of AMGN, AXP, CVX, HD, UNH and V as the long-time beaten down Chinese internet stocks such as AVGO, BIDU, PDD and others of this nature continued to do well as the government there eased up its restrictions on those items which has resulted in all of them doing better from the large declines that they had undergone for a good part of this year.
Similar to the Dow, the S&P also came down from an earlier gain and finished lower by 7 to 5738 and the former close on Thursday was its 42nd record advance this year so far. It was the third straight higher week and the sixth better one of the last seven, which is not so easy to do during the historically seasonal weaker period of the year, which is supposed to be the one that we are in now. This was due to some of the larger technology leaders easing back a little and the same thing happened to the Nasdaq which sold off by 70 down to 18,119 on that basis as well.
The Russell 2000 Index had a higher day along with the Dow as it gained 14 up to 2224 and the VIX made a larger move higher up to 16.96 on potential fears of selloffs partly due to overseas political tensions.
Treasury yields eased in the bond market after a report showed that inflation eased back in August by a bit more than economists expected. It echoed similar numbers from earlier in the month about inflation, but Friday’s report has resonance because it is the measure that officials at the Federal Reserve prefer to use, namely the August P.C.E.
For more than a year, the Fed had kept its main interest rate at a two-decade high in hopes of slowing the economy enough to drive inflation toward its 2% target. Now that inflation has eased substantially from its peak two summers ago, the Fed has begun to lower rates to ease conditions for the slowing job market and prevent a recession.
Of course, the risk of a downturn still looms. U.S. employers have slowed their hiring, and the inflation report on Friday also showed growth in U.S. consumer spending in August fell shy of economists’ expectations. That is important because consumer spending is the main engine of the economy.
Part of the shortfall may have been because incomes for Americans grew less in August than economists expected. As the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Americans will get lower interest payments on their savings accounts and other similar holdings.
The boost that lower interest rates can give to borrowers, meanwhile, can take longer to come to fruition, so consumption spending will likely get squeezed.
More encouraging data arrived later in the morning, when a report said sentiment among U.S. consumers was stronger than economists expected.
COST fell after delivering weaker revenue in the latest quarter than analysts expected. That was even though its profit topped expectations.
Another company that depends on people spending money, ski-resort operator MTN plunged by 4% after reporting a larger loss for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Scant snowfalls at its Australian resorts hurt its results, and it gave a forecast for profit in its upcoming fiscal year that fell short of forecasts.
On the winning side was BMY which gained after receiving U.S. federal approval for its new approach to treat schizophrenia in adults.
Beaten-down DJT rose by 5.5% following the first disclosure of a major investor selling its shares now that a restriction for insiders has lifted.
Trump has said he does not plan to sell any of his shares, and he owns more than half of the company, but the stock has been shaky amid speculation about whether he may.
Markets overseas made bigger moves, as stocks in Shanghai rallied 2.9% to close their best week since 2008. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 3.6% to cap its best week since 1998.
They soared following a barrage of announcements through the week from China’s central bank and government in hopes of propping up the world’s second-largest economy. Investors aren’t convinced all the stimulus will ultimately succeed, but they say they are impressed by the size of it all following earlier piecemeal efforts.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury eased to 3.75% from 3.80% late Thursday.
The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more closely with expectations for what the Fed will do with short-term rates, fell to 3.56% from 3.63%.
Traders are betting on a 55% probability the Fed will cut the federal funds rate by another half of a percentage point at its next meeting in November, according to data from CME Group. It usually moves rates by just a quarter of a percentage point.
Earnings this week will see: today – Carnival Cruises; Tuesday – Dow component NKE; Wednesday – CAG; Thursday – STZ.
Economic reports will see: Tuesday – August construction spending; Thursday – August factory orders; Friday – the big one for the week, namely the September jobs report for which the estimate is 145,000 versus 142,000 the prior month while the unemployment rate is supposed to remain at 4.2%.
