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September 3, 2024
DOW: 41,102
S&P: 5,571
Nasdaq: 17,325
10YR T-Note: 3.85%
Bitcoin: 57,782
VIX: 18.00
Gold: $2,510.70
Crude Oil: $70.84
Prices Current as of 11:29 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In a strange but very bullish session to close out the month of August on Friday, the market took a strange mid-day drop after starting out strong and then with around 40 minutes to go, it went into an upside overdrive to end strongly higher and ended 2.3% higher for the month. The S&P is now higher for the past four months with a powerful gain of 56 points to 5648, just short of its all-time high from early July. And it was gains in large technology stocks that led the way for a change. It is now higher by 18.4% this year and is within 0.4% of its all-time high from early July.
The Dow continued to set records as it ended up by 228 with a new high of 41,863 as AMGN, CAT, GS, IBM and MSFT led the upside charge. It actually set four all-time highs last week.
The Nasdaq did nicely with a gain of 197 to 17,713 with most of the large technology stocks doing well and even NVDA was able to stabilize after its recent selloff after earnings.
The market had the nerve to slip to a loss in mid-afternoon with the S&P declining by 9 points before that rip-roaring late comeback as it gained 23 points in the last 15 minutes alone, which seemed rather flaky, but who’s complaining?
The always-important P.C.E. report, favored by the Fed, rose by 0.2% in July and is up by 2.5% this year, which is the lowest since February 2021 while the core rate came in also at 0.2% and 2.6% for the year. It was as high as 7.1% in the middle of 2022.
The report confirms price increases are cooling, keeping the central bank on track to cut rates for the first time in more than four years at its upcoming meeting next month. The market is betting that the Fed will cut its benchmark rate by a full 1% by the end of the year.
Bond yields were mixed in the Treasury market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.92% from 3.86% late Thursday.
Technology stocks led the market. MRVL climbed 9% after its latest quarterly results hit sales and profit targets. Other chipmakers also rose as a result with AVGO going higher as well along with NVDA.
DELL also beat analysts’ second-quarter forecasts, boosted by record server and networking revenue as companies continue to beef up their artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Mall-based cosmetics retailer ULTA fell by 4% after its sales and profit fell short of expectations. It also trimmed its guidance below analysts’ forecasts. Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway said that it holds a stake in the company earlier this month,
Mostly solid U.S. earnings and economic growth updates capped off a month of encouraging reports for the broader economy. Data from various reports in August have shown that retail sales, employment and consumer confidence remain strong.
Friday’s Commerce Department report also showed that Americans stepped up their spending by a vigorous 0.5% from June to July, up from 0.3% the previous month, and incomes rose 0.3%, faster in July than in the previous month.
Still, stocks have historically done poorly in September, as since 1950, the S&P has finished higher only 43% of the time, making it the worst month for stocks.
Investors will be looking for clues on the Fed’s next move on Friday, when with the latest monthly jobs report. Economists polled by FactSet are expecting the economy added 155,000 jobs in August. That would follow a gain of 114,000 the previous month.
Markets in Europe rose initially following a report showing inflation fell sharply in the E.U. in September and this report sets up the European Central Bank to cut interest rates next month.
Markets in Asia rose. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.7% to finish at 38,647.75 after data on the world’s fourth largest economy came in mostly positive.
Earnings season is quieting down now with the following: Tuesday – ZS; ; Wednesday – CASY, DKS; Thursday – AVGO, DOCU, LE; Friday – BIG.
Economic reports will see: today – August ISM Manufacturing Survey slipped to 46.8, August construction spending; Wednesday – July trade deficit, July JOLTS job openings survey; Friday – the big one, August non-farm payroll survey with estimates of 155,000 and the unemployment rate down to 4.2%.
