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October 4, 2024
DOW: 42,163
S&P: 5,725
Nasdaq: 18,048
10YR T-Note: 3.95%
Bitcoin: 61,777
VIX: 19.04
Gold: $2,670.10
Crude Oil: $74.75
Prices Current as of 12:06 pm
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Crude prices jumped Thursday on worries that increasing tensions in the Middle East could disrupt the global flow of oil, while U.S. stocks pulled back further from their records.
The Dow was the worst performer fell the most by 185 down to 42,011 led by weakness in GS, BA and CAT. The S&P, which tried to get nominally positive a few times during the session, ended lower by 10 down to 5700 as AAPL, MSFT did poorly while NVDA finally caught a nice upside bid and META reached a new all-time high but those recently hot Chinese stocks fell back as I said they would.
The Nasdaq did the “best” of all with a very nominal decline of 6 to 17,918 due to strength in NVDA and META while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks was lower again by 15 to 2180 and the VIX went higher up to 20.49 on those Mideast tensions.
Stocks sank as oil prices kept rising amid the wait to see how Israel will react to Iran’s missile attack from Tuesday. A barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, leaped 5% to settle at $77.62 after starting the week below $72. It’s potentially on track for its biggest weekly percentage gain in nearly two years.
Oil prices rose after President Joe Biden suggested on Thursday that U.S. and Israeli officials were discussing a possible strike by Israel against Iranian oil facilities.
“We’re in discussion of that,” Biden said to reporters. He added, “I think that would be a little – anyway,” without finishing the thought. Biden also said he doesn’t expect Israel to retaliate immediately against Iran.
Iran is a major producer of oil, and a worry is that a broadening of the fighting could not only choke off Iran’s flows to China but also affect neighboring countries that are integral to the flow of crude. Helping to keep prices in check, though, are signals that supplies of oil remain ample at the moment. Brent crude fell to its lowest price in nearly three years last month.
In the bond market, Treasury yields rose after reports suggested the U.S. economy remains solid. One showed growth for real estate, health care and other U.S. services businesses accelerated to its strongest pace since February 2023 at 54.9 and topped economists’ expectations, though employment trends may be slowing.
A separate report suggested the number of layoffs across the United States remains relatively low. Slightly more workers filed for unemployment benefits last week, but the number remains low compared with history.
Outside of this week’s worries about the Middle East, the dominant question has been whether the job market will continue to hold up after the Federal Reserve earlier kept interest rates at a two-decade high as they wanted to slow down the economy to remove the higher inflation threat.
Stocks are near their records because of hopes the U.S. economy will continue to grow, now that the Federal Reserve is lowering interest rates to give it more juice. The Fed last month lowered its main interest rate for the first time in more than four years and indicated more cuts will arrive through next year.
China is also talking about more aid for its economy, and when the top policymakers in the world’s two largest economies are determined to support economic growth, it pays to listen.
The job market could use help, as U.S. hiring has been slowing. The U.S. government will release the latest monthly update on the jobs market at 8:30am and economists expect it to show hiring slowed slightly from August’s pace.
LEVI dropped 8% despite reporting better profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The denim company’s revenue fell short of forecasts, and it said it is considering what to do with its Dockers brand, whose revenue fell 7% last quarter.
NVDA helped cushion the losses, and the 3.3% gain for the chip company was the strongest force pushing up on the S&P. After stumbling during the summer on worries that its price shot too high in the frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology, it has been climbing back toward its record.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.85% from 3.78% late Wednesday. The two-year yield, which moves more closely with expectations for what the Fed will do with overnight rates, rose to 3.70% from 3.64%.
The following reacted to earnings reports: yesterday – LEVI lower and STZ higher.
Economic reports showed the following: yesterday – weekly jobless claims came in at 225,000; today – the big one, which is the September jobs report for which the estimate is around 150,000 and the unemployment numbers are expected to be 4.2%.
And once again, the market faked most people out with a bit of a phony negative close after the S&P and Nasdaq were higher for good parts of the session as the report came in much better than expected with a jobs gain of 254,000 and the downward two-month revisions at 70,000.
The unemployment rate eased back to 4.1% while average hourly earnings were 0.4% monthly and 4% year over year. The average workweek eased back to 34.2 while 62.7 was the labor force participation rate, and we might get a new all-time high S&P closing rate depending on what happens during the trading session.
