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October 30, 2024
DOW: 42,412
S&P: 5,845
Nasdaq: 18,770
10YR T-Note: 4.24%
Bitcoin: 72,305
VIX: 19.48
Gold: 2,789.30
Crude Oil:68.23
Prices Current as of 10:39 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In another mixed day for the markets, there were all kinds of discrepancies with the Dow ending lower by 154 points to 42,233 as CAT, CVX, HD, JPM, TRV, and UNH all went lower while the S&P ended 9 points higher to 5833 even though the majority of stocks in this index were negative. This pattern was something we had seen earlier this year as strong gains by major technology stocks overwhelmed the others. This was most noticeable in the Nasdaq which ended higher by 145 to 18,712 at a record as gains in META, MSFT, AVGO, NFLX, AMZN plus others all did well.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks lagged due to weakness in the financial issues and the VIX declined down to 19.34 as it goes nowhere despite the obsession with high-priced call options which are a negative.
The overall market was hurt by losses in that awful F in addition to homebuilders on weakness in DHI. GOOG, like most of the larger technology issues, gained during the session and was able to rise after its profit report on the close and this should help things do better to start trading today.
JBLU lost 17% even though its results for the latest quarter were better than analysts expected. The carrier said its revenue could fall between 3% and 7% in the last three months of 2024 from a year earlier, hurt by this month’s Hurricane Milton and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
DHI fell by 7% after the homebuilder reported weaker profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Its C.E.O. said some potential home buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to become more affordable and are sitting on the sidelines.
Yields have rallied as report after report has shown the economy remains stronger than expected and yesterday, the September Consumer Confidence reports showed a gain up to 108.7 which was the most since January. In addition, the September JOLTS job openings report edged lower down to 7.44 million, the least since January 2021.
Such numbers have forced traders to ratchet back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, now that it’s just as focused on keeping the economy moving as getting inflation down. Traders are even betting on a slim chance the Fed will keep its main interest rate steady at its meeting next week, according to data from CME Group.
This is after the Fed kicked off its rate-cutting campaign in September with a larger-than-usual reduction. Just a month ago, many traders were thinking just the Fed would follow up in November with another bigger-than-usual cut.
Treasury yields eased a bit after paring gains from earlier in the day. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.25% from 4.28% late Monday, but it’s still well above the 3.60% level it was sitting at in the middle of last month. Treasury yields, like stocks, have historically tended to be shaky heading into an Election Day, only to calm down regardless of which party wins.
In stock markets abroad, indexes dipped in Europe after rising in much of Asia outside of a 1.1% drop for stocks in Shanghai.
Crude oil prices slipped after erasing earlier gains to compound their sharp 6% drop from the prior day. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 0.4%.
This week will see five out of the Magnificent 7 companies reporting in addition to others and the lineup is as follows: yesterday – FFIV, CDNS, VFC, higher and F, YMDX, CROX, JBLU, DHI, PYPL, BOOT and Dow component MCD lower; today – Dow component V and GOOG, RDDT, SNAP, VMC higher while Dow component CAT in addition to AMD, CMG, CZR, LLY HUM are lower; tonight – Dow components AMGN and MSFT in addition to EBAY, META, CVNA; Thursday – Dow components AMZN, AAPL, INTC and MRK plus MA; Friday – XOM.
Economic reports will see: yesterday - October consumer confidence rose to 108.7 the highest since January, September JOLTS job openings fell to 7.44 million, the lowest since January 2021; today – the first estimate of 3Q G.D.P. came in at 2.8%; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, September personal income and spending, September P.C.E. report; Friday – October non-farm payroll report for which the initial estimate is 125,000 with 4.1% unemployment rate.
