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October 29, 2024
DOW: 42359.68
S&P: 5843.23
Nasdaq: 18701.4
10YR T-Note: 4.3%
Bitcoin: 72678.9
VIX: 19.19
Gold: $2783.3
Crude Oil: $67.19
Prices Current as of 13:08 pm
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market continued to move higher yesterday to start a very important week but once again, it sort of faded a bit into the close.
Nevertheless, the Dow did break a five-day losing streak from last week and ended with a closing advance of 273 to 42,387 led by gains in financials such as AXP, GS, JPM in addition to HD, MCD after its turbulent week and 3M.
The S&P finished 15 points higher to 5823 but it also gave back a good part of its gains as those financials plus some large technology stocks led the way. The Nasdaq ended 48 points higher to 18,567 but the NDX, which is influenced by the large tech issues, actually ended slightly lower as MSFT, MVDA, NFLX and TSLA sold off, and the last one was interesting because it failed once again over 270 after Friday’s options-related ending and now has more to go to attain better prices than this level.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks did well on strength in some regional banks to end with a 36 point gain to2244 while the VIX dropped once again to 19.8 as it continues to disappoint the bullish participants here as a large skid in oil-and-gas stocks after the price of crude had its biggest drop in more than a year.
A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude fell 6%, and Brent crude, the international standard, also dropped by the same amount. This was the first trading for them as Israel’s attack was more restrained than some investors had feared it could be, and it raised hopes that a worst-case scenario may be avoided with Iran.
Beyond the violence that is taking a human toll, the worry in financial markets is that an escalating war in the Middle East could cut off the flow of crude from Iran, which is a major oil producer. Such worries had sent the price of Brent crude up to nearly $81 per barrel in early October, despite signals that plenty of oil is available for the global economy. It has since fallen back below $72.
Financial markets are also dealing with the volatility that typically surrounds a U.S. presidential election, with Election Day fast approaching in a week. Markets have historically been shaky heading into an election, only to calm down regardless of which party wins.
The trend affects both the stock and the bond markets. In the bond market, Treasury yields were ticking higher to add more gains onto their sharp rise for the month so far.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.28% from 4.24% late Friday. That is well above the roughly 3.70% level where it was near the start of October.
Yields have climbed as report after report has shown the economy remains stronger than expected. That is good news for because it bolsters hopes the economy can avoid the inflation that often leads to a recession that many feared was on the way.
But it is also forcing traders to ratchet back forecasts for how deeply the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, now that it is just as focused on keeping the economy humming as getting inflation lower. With bets diminishing on how much the Fed will ultimately cut rates, Treasury yields have also been given back some of their earlier declines.
That means the non-farm payroll report for Friday could end up being the market’s main event, even bigger than the Big Tech profit reports. Investors want to see more evidence of solid hiring to keep alive the perfect-landing hopes for the economy.
Such data has supplanted inflation reports, which used to be the most important every month but have waned as inflation seems to be heading toward the Fed’s target of 2%.
HOOD rose by 3% after it said it would begin allowing some of its customers to trade contracts based on whether they think either candidate will win the 2024 election.
DAL was another winner and rose after suing CRWD, claiming the cybersecurity company had cut corners and caused a worldwide technology outage that led to thousands of canceled flights in July.
This week will see five out of the Magnificent 7 companies reporting in addition to others and the lineup is as follows: today – FFIV, CDNS, VFC, PFE and Dow component V higher and F, YMDX, CROX, JBLU and Dow component MCD lower; tonight – GOOG; Wednesday – AMGN, ADP, Dow components CAT, MSFT in addition to EBAY, LLY, HUM, META and VMC; Thursday – Dow components AMZN, AAPL, INTC and MRK plus MA; Friday – XOM.
Economic reports will see: today - October consumer confidence, September JOLTS job openings; Wednesday – latest 3Q G.D.P. estimate; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, September personal income and spending, September P.C.E. report; Friday – October non-farms payroll report for which the initial estimate is 125,000 with 4.1% unemployment rate.
