Daily Market Notes | 5-minute read

October 15, 2024

By Donald Selkin | Chief Market Strategist

DOW: 42,921

S&P: 5,836

Nasdaq: 18,312

10YR T-Note: 4.04%

Bitcoin: 65,508

VIX: 20.08

Gold: $2,675.40

Crude Oil: $70.12

Prices Current as of 10:43 am

Source: CNBC

40+ Years on

Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.

After a lower start of 80 points as indicated by the earlier stock index futures, the Dow then exploded upward yesterday to finish with a closing advance of 201 up to 43, 065 led by gains in AAPL, CRM, GS, HD, MSFT, TRV and UNH.

The S&P climbed by 45 up to 5860, also its best close ever, led mainly by gains in the large technology stocks while the Nasdaq advanced by 160 up to 18, 502 led by NVDA which actually reached an intraday record all after its negative twists earlier in the summer plus AAPL and pathetic TSLA had the nerve to gain a point after its robotaxi destruction last week.

The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks got dragged higher by 14 to 2248 while the VIX eased back to 19.70 despite all of the Middle Eastern tensions.

The first two indices are coming off their fifth straight winning weeks and are on track for their longest weekly winning streaks of the year.

The gains followed relatively quiet trading in Europe, while the U.S. bond market remained closed for the day because of a holiday.

The strongest action in global markets came from China, where the finance minister gave plans for the world’s second-largest economy. The government is looking at additional ways to boost the economy but stopped short of unveiling a major new stimulus plan that investors were hoping for. This is the reason the group is selling off sharply once again today.

Crude oil prices, meanwhile, sank roughly 2% on worries about demand from China’s slowing economy.

Hopes for big stimulus in China have sent Chinese stocks sharply higher recently after they languished for years. But investors are skeptical about how much it can remake and restore the economy.

Besides oil, prices also fell for copper and other commodities that a healthy Chinese economy would devour. That helped drive down prices for miners, such as FMC, which fell 2.3% for one of the larger losses in the S&P.

BA lost in its first trading since they warned that it expects to report that it burned through $1.3 billion in cash during the latest quarter and lost $9.97 per share and also said it was laying off 10% of its workforce as it tries to deal with a labor strike that is crippling production of the company’s best-selling airline planes.

On the winning side was SOFI which rose by 11% after announcing a $2 billion loan platform agreement with investment firm Fortress Investment Group, where the company will refer pre-qualified borrowers.

LBPH soared by 52% after H. Lundbeck, a Danish company, said it would buy the biopharmaceutical company in an all-cash deal valuing it at $2.6 billion.

Analysts are looking for S&P companies to deliver overall growth of 4.1% in earnings per share for the latest quarter from a year earlier, according to FactSet. If they are correct, it would be a fifth straight quarter of growth.

Solid, continued growth in profits for companies would help tamp down criticism that’s built up about how expensive the broad stock market looks, after share prices ran higher faster than earnings.

Stocks have broadly rallied to records on relief that interest rates are finally heading backdown, now that the Federal Reserve has widened its focus to include keeping the economy moving instead of just fighting high inflation.

Recent reports showing a better economy have also raised optimism that the Fed can pull off a perfect landing where it gets inflation down to 2% without causing a recession that many had thought would be necessary.

This week starts the main part of 3Q earnings results with the following lineup: today - BAC, SCHW,C higher in addition to Dow component GS while JNJ and UNH are lower; tonight –PNC, JBHT and IBKR; Wednesday – DSC, MS and USB, ASML, ABT; Thursday – BLK, Truist, ISRG, NFLX and TWS and Dow component TRV on Thursday; Dow components AXP and PG plus SLB on Friday.

Economic reports will see: today – October N.Y. State Empire Manufacturing Survey fell by 11.9%Thursday – September retail sales, weekly jobless claims, September industrial production; Friday – September housing starts.

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