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October 11, 2024
DOW: 42,794
S&P: 5,811
Nasdaq: 18,319
10YR T-Note: 4.08%
Bitcoin: 62,062
VIX: 20.50
Gold: $2,673.90
Crude Oil: $75.50
Prices Current as of 11:27 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
U.S. stocks edged back from their records Thursday after reports showed the fact that inflation was a little warmer last month than expected and a larger number of workers filed for unemployment benefits last week.
As a result, the Dow skipped by 57 to 42,454 led by declines in that awful BA and HD while the S&P dropped by 12 to 5780 hurt by declines in AAPL, META, MSTR and AMD. The Nasdaq slipped by 10 to 18,282 as NVDA has continued to drive back to its all-time highs while that awful Russell 2000 Index fell back again by 12 down to 2188.
Meanwhile, the VIX rose a slight bit to 20.93 with some negative participants in this market willing to buy calls as high as 136 on what would appear to be a disaster scenario. And let it be remembered that at the once in a lifetime October 19, 1987, when the market plunged by 22%, the VIX got as high as 150 and that was before trading will now cease for the day after a 12% decline.
Stocks had stormed to records in large part on excitement about easing interest rates, now that the Federal Reserve is lowering them as it widens its focus to include keeping the economy moving ahead instead of just fighting higher inflation.
Lower rates ease the brakes off the economy and help prices for investments, but the pace of further cuts will depend on if inflation continues to head down toward the Fed’s 2% target as it expects.
Thursday’s report showed inflation slowed to 2.4% in September from 2.5% in August, according to the consumer price index, but economists were expecting an even sharper slowdown to 2.3%. And after ignoring the swings for food, gasoline and other energy prices, underlying trends that economists say can be a better predictor for where inflation is heading were a touch hotter than expected.
At the same time, a separate report showed 258,000 U.S. workers filed for unemployment benefits last week. That number is relatively low compared with history, but it was a sharper acceleration than economists expected. Hurricane Helene and the strike by workers at BA may have helped make the number look worse.
In the bond market, Treasury yields rose immediately after the release of the economic data, only to then swing up and down as traders tried to handicap what it would all mean for the Fed.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury held at 4.07%, the level it was at late Wednesday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, fell to 3.96% from 4.02% late Wednesday.
Traders are still mostly convinced the Fed will cut its main interest rate by the traditional size of a quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting, according to data from CME Group. But some are holding onto bets that it could leave the federal funds rate alone in November. This is after many traders earlier this month were calling for a larger-than-usual cut of half a percentage point, before some stronger than expected data on the economy wiped out such calls.
TD bank fell after it agreed to pay $3.09 billion as part of a resolution of U.S. investigations into its compliance programs related to money laundering. The company also agreed to a cap on how big two U.S. banking subsidiaries can grow.
DAL lost 1% after reporting weaker results than analysts expected. The company said bookings for holiday travel are strong, but it’s anticipating a drop in flying around the election.
Oil prices, meanwhile, rose to claw back their sharp giveback from earlier in the week. A barrel of Brent crude added 3.7% to settle at $79.40. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude gained 3.6% to $75.85.
That helped drive stocks in the energy industry higher, which kept the losses for U.S. stock indexes in check. XOM and Dow component CVX did well.
In stock markets abroad, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 3% for its latest sharp swing.
After rising on hopes for stimulus to prop up the world’s second-largest economy, Chinese stocks slumped earlier this week on disappointment that there isn’t more on the way.
The third-quarter earnings season begins this week with the following: yesterday – DAL lower; today - BLK, JPM, WFC higher.
Economic reports will have: yesterday – September C.P.I. rose by 0.2%, weekly jobless claims gained 258K; today – September P.P.I. came in unchanged while the core rate excluding food and energy gained 0.2%, U. of Michigan mid-October Consumer Sentiment Survey.
