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November 6, 2024
DOW: 43,552
S&P: 5898
Nasdaq: 18,881
10YR T-Note: 4.56%
Bitcoin: 74,196
VIX: 21,94
Gold: $2675
Crude Oil: $71,94
Prices Current as of 10:36 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Finally, the market opened higher yesterday and was able to go the distance and ended on a very high note on the day of the election. Usually the market tended to come lower after a start of this type, so I assume that it anticipated what would happen today.
The Dow made a large gain of 427 up to 42,221 with most all of them up despite BA falling again despite the settlement of the worker’s strike.
The S&P also made a very large gain of 70 up to 5792 with most of the big technology stocks and financial stocks doing nicely with even AAPL finally making a gain after its recent lower days and TSLA finally doing well after its six straight recent down sessions.
The Nasdaq also made a huge gain of 259 to 18,439 with those recent two mentioned adding to the euphoria and the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks once again moving along on its own terms with a 40 point gain to 2259 on strength in many of the smaller banks again.
And the VIX came down again to 20.47 as it remains in this steady range despite the efforts of those who want to push the far out of the money options higher, which has not happened.
And the various aftermarket stock index futures showed huge gain for this morning while those for the bond market made sharp declines in anticipation of higher interest rates and I do not see how this implies “lower inflation” as proposed by the winning candidate. These higher yields could be a function of anticipated tax cuts that are being talked about and might increase the budget deficit.
Bond yields were rising. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was at 4.35% as of 8:20 p.m. Eastern. It had earlier slipped to 4.28% from 4.29% late Monday.
And how about the rise in Bitcoin to $73,000 on anticipated support for it from leading members of the new administration.
Despite all the uncertainty heading into the final day of voting, many professional investors suggest keeping the focus on the long term. The broad U.S. stock market has historically tended to rise regardless of which party wins the White House, even if each party’s policies can help and hurt different industries’ profits.
Since 1945, the S&P has risen in 73% of the years where a Democrat was president and 70% of the years when a Republican was the nation’s chief executive.
The U.S. stock market has risen more in magnitude when Democrats have been president, in part because a loss under George W. Bush’s term hurt the Republicans’ average. Bush took over as the dot-com bubble was deflating and exited office when the 2008 global financial crisis and Great Recession were devastating markets.
The general hope among investors is often for split control of the U.S. government because that’s more likely to keep the status quo and avoid big changes that could drive the nation’s debt much, much higher. As of now, the Republicans will control the Senate while the House is undecided at the moment.
The S&P ended up rising 69.6% from Election Day 2020 through Monday, following President Joe Biden’s win. It rallied to records as the U.S. economy bounced back from the COVID-19 pandemic and managed to avoid a recession despite a jump in inflation.
In the four years before that, the S&P rose 57.5% from Election Day 2016 through Election Day 2020, in part because of cuts to tax rates signed by Trump.
On Tuesday, excitement about the artificial-intelligence boom helped lift the market following a strong profit report from PLTR. So did a report showing growth accelerated last month for U.S. services businesses, beating economists’ expectations for a slowdown.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday - PLTR, DD higher and NXPI, QSR, CLF lower; today – SMCI lower and DVN, CVS higher; tonight – GILD; Thursday - AKAM, EXPE, HSY; Friday – Baxter.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – September trade deficit widened to $84.4 billion, presidential and Congressional elections; Thursday – Federal Reserve interest rate cut, weekly jobless claims; Friday – mid-month U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
