.png)
November 5, 2024
DOW: 41985.53
S&P: 5752.97
Nasdaq: 18349.12
10YR T-Note: 4.32%
Bitcoin: 70032.78
VIX: 20.94
Gold: $2751.8
Crude Oil: $72.17
Prices Current as of 9:57 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Ahead of two momentous events this week, the market once again what it has done very often recently, namely to finish lower than where it was in the morning.
For instance, the Dow ended with a closing decline of 257 down to 41,793 led by selling in GS and UNH, the two largest price components in the index, in addition to MCD and the financial components.
The S&P also drifted lower as the session moved along, with a closing loss of 16 down to 5713 led by declines in most of the large technology components in addition to the financials.
The Nasdaq also ended lower after having had the nerve to be slightly positive earlier, with a final 60 point loss to 18,174 as pathetic TSLA fell for the sixth straight day after drawing in so many hopeful option participants who are not doing well, as only MU and NVDA, in addition to NVDA did slightly better and the latter ended only nominally higher after being added to the Dow starting at the end of the week while INTC fell after being kicked out.
Only the Russell 2000 Index ended higher by 9 points to 2219 due to strength in some regional banks and it was also the only one that finished slightly positive last week while the other indices fell.
The VIX ended slightly higher at 21.98 despite the selloff and the always ongoing concerns about Middle Eastern issues.
Warren Buffet’s stock slipped by 2.2% and was one of the heaviest weights on the market after reporting a drop in operating profit for the latest quarter.
But believe it or not, a slight the majority of stocks within the S&P rose, including a gain for FOX after it reported a stronger profit than expected. That was despite increases in some costs, including for newsgathering at Fox News to cover this election cycle.
Election Day will arrive tomorrow, although its result may not be known for some time as officials count all the votes. That has raised fears about the possibility of sharp swings around the world because markets infamously hate uncertainty.
History may be less foreboding. The broad U.S. stock market has historically gone on to rise whichever party wins the White House. And in 2020, U.S. stocks climbed immediately after Election Day and kept going even after the former President refused to concede and challenged the results, creating plenty of uncertainty. A large part of that rally was due to excitement about the potential for a vaccine for COVID-19, which had just shut down the global economy.
For markets, prices may have already moved ahead of expected outcomes from the election. A win for the former President could mean U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports, for example, which could hurt the value of the Mexican peso. But the peso has already fallen against the U.S. dollar in recent months, which could limit further moves if such a win were actually to happen.
A victory for the former President would be less of a surprise to markets this time around than in 2016, when Treasury yields soared on expectations for tax cuts that could further inflate the nation’s debt or fuel a stronger U.S economy. Treasury yields have already climbed in recent weeks, in part due to rising expectations in some market corners for such a win, along with a spate of data showing the U.S. economy has remained stronger than feared.
On Monday, Treasury yields gave back a chunk of those gains. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.29% from 4.38% late Friday.
In the oil market, the price for a barrel of U.S. crude rose 2.8% to $71.03 after Saudi Arabia and other oil producers said that they would postpone their plans to increase the amount of crude they produced. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 2.7% to $75.08 for a barrel.
The price of Brent is still down for the year so far, in part because of worries about how much demand will come from China given its economic challenges.
The Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress is meeting this week, and analysts say the government may endorse major spending initiatives to boost economic growth amid troubles for the country’s real-estate industry.
Beyond that meeting and Election Day in the United States, this week will also feature the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve, where the widespread expectation is for it to cut its main interest rate for a second straight time on Thursday.
The hope that has propelled stock indexes to records recently is that the U.S. economy can remain resilient and avoid a recession, in part because of the coming cuts to rates expected from the Fed.
Stocks fell in the nuclear power industry after U.S. regulators denied a request that would have sent more electricity to an Amazon data center from a Pennsylvania nuclear plant run by Talen Energy. Companies across the power industry have been making deals with data center operators to feed their growing need for more electricity, and TLN fell as a result.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mostly lower in Europe after rising in much of Asia.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday - NYT, BRK lower and FOX higher; today – PLTR, DD higher and NXPI, QSR, CLF lower; tonight - DVN, YUM; Wednesday – CVS, GILD; Thursday - AKAM, EXPE, HSY; Friday – Baxter.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – September factory orders were down by 0.5%; today – September trade deficit widened to $84.4 billion, presidential and Congressional elections; Thursday – Federal Reserve interest rate cut, weekly jobless claims; Friday – mid-month U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
