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November 4, 2024
DOW: 42,052.19
S&P: 5728.80
Nasdaq: 20,033.17
10YR T-Note: 4.27%
Bitcoin: 68583
VIX: 22.46
Gold: $2745.44
Crude Oil: $71.32
Prices Current as of 9:26 AM
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After last Thursday’s downside wipeout, which ended the Dow and S&P monthly winning streaks of five and the Nasdaq’s seven week positive streak, and the first two items for the second lower week in a row, the market made a comeback on Friday.
But once again, the major averages did close well off of their best levels of the session, as has also been the pattern as for instance the S&P had been ahead by 67 at the morning high before it ended up by 23 to 5729 led by gains in AMZN on earnings, NVDA, BKNG and some financials.
The Dow also ended higher, but also well off of its best levels with a 289 gain to 42,052 helped by advances in volatile BA, CVX on earnings, HON, MCD and UNH, both of which go up and down for one day following the next day.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks ended 13 points up to 2240 and actually went positive for the week on good smaller bank performance while the VIX went opposite to the market with a decline down to 21.88 with the ever-present tensions in the Middle East holding it higher than it probably should be.
INTC rallied after delivering a bigger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected and was the strongest force pushing the S&P higher and for its troubles got kicked out of the Dow and is expected to start out today.
CAH was another one of the market’s bigger gainers and jumped 7% after topping analysts’ forecasts for profit and revenue in the latest quarter. It also raised its profit forecast for its fiscal year, which is only in its second quarter.
They helped offset a 1.2% slide for AAPL, which said it expects revenue growth in the important holiday quarter to be in the low to mid-single digit percentages. That was below several analysts’ forecasts.
In the bond market, Treasury yields pushed higher following some swings after the always important non-farm payroll report which said that U.S. employers added only a net 12,000 workers to their payrolls last month. That was far short of the 115,000 in hiring that economists were expecting or the 223,00 jobs that employers created in September. The market rallied despite this supposedly “weak” number because there were two extenuating circumstances, namely the ongoing BA strike situation and the devastation caused by Hurricane Milton in the southeastern part of the country.
The nearly unanimous expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday. But the weaker-than-expected jobs report wiped out the slim chance traders had been seeing of the Fed holding rates steady, according to data from CME Group.
The Fed began its rate-cutting program in September with a larger-than-usual cut of half a percentage point, as it turns more attention to keeping the job market solid instead of focusing on just driving inflation lower.
The two-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks expectations for the Fed’s actions, initially fell following the jobs report but then climbed to 4.20% from 4.18% late Thursday.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which also takes future economic growth and other factors into account, likewise rose after a knee-jerk drop. It climbed to 4.37%, up from 4.29% late Thursday.
All those distortions make the numbers difficult to parse, but it doesn’t change our view that the labor market should further decelerate in coming months, according to some observers.
The hope is that the economy will still avoid a recession, even with that expected slowdown in the job market, thanks in part to coming cuts to interest rates by the Fed. The overall economy has so far remained more solid than expected.
Another report on Friday said U.S. manufacturing contracted by more last month than economists expected. It has been one of the areas of the economy hurt most by the Fed’s keeping interest rates at a two-decade high until September.
In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across much of Europe after finishing lower across much of Asia outside of Hong Kong.
The price of oil, meanwhile, rose again to further trim its loss for the week. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude rose to around $70 and now the price of crude at the gas station is below $3.00 in most places.
Earnings this week will see: today – NYT, FOXA; tonight – PLTR; Tuesday – DVN, YUM; Wednesday – CVS, GILD; Thursday - AKAM, EXPE, HSY; Friday – Baxter.
Economic reports will see: today – September factory orders; Tuesday – September trade deficit, presidential and Congressional elections; Thursday – Federal Reserve interest rate cut, weekly jobless claims; Friday – mid-month U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
