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November 27, 2024
DOW: 44,931
S&P: 6,014
Nasdaq: 19,091
10YR T-Note: 4.25%
Bitcoin: 93,921
VIX: 14.02
Gold: 2,678.70
Crude Oil:69.04
Prices Current as of 10:00 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Special Comment – the next issue of the Daily Market Notes will appear on Monday, December 2 – Happy Thanksgiving to all readers
In another astounding upside day, the Dow turned a 310 point morning loss into a closing gain of 123 to its best ever close at 44,860. It was finally led in this process by the old-time large technology stocks which have not done so great lately, bur finally caught the wind at their backs for a change, and this included AMZN, MSFT, AAPL plus CRM.
The S&P was higher all session but got pushed to a new record on the last hour when the Dow went positive. It ended 34 points higher to a best ever 6021 as many of the large tech stocks did better as mentioned. The Nasdaq also was helped by those large issues as NVDA finally stopped declining and the index advanced by 120 up to 19,175.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks skipped the upside with a 17 point decline after reaching a new high on Monday and ended at 2424. Yesterday was kind of like the early days of the rally as it was dominated by the large Magnificent Seven leaders while the small issues did nothing.
As the indices rose once again, the VIX dropped and ended at 14.10 so it keeps getting close to the near-term support of 13, which could perhaps temporarily halt the upside for a while.
The big early issues was the new President’s latest talk about tariffs which seemed to create only a mild temporary pullback in the Dow after the European markets ended lower as they were the first ones to trade on this development.
Stock markets abroad mostly fell after it was said that there are plans to impose sweeping new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China in the new administration.
Trump has often praised the use of tariffs, but investors are weighing whether his latest threat will actually become policy or is just an opening point for negotiations. For now, the market seems to be taking it more as the latter.
Unless the United States can prepare alternatives for the autos, energy products and other goods that come from Mexico, Canada and China, such tariffs would raise the price of imported items all at once and make households suffer.
They could also hurt profit margins for U.S. companies, while raising the threat of retaliatory tariffs by other countries. And unlike tariffs in Trump’s first term, his latest proposal would affect products across the board.
GM and F fell because both import automobiles from Mexico. CRB, which sells Modelo and other Mexican beer brands in the United States, dropped as well and the value of the Mexican peso fell 1.8% against the U.S. dollar.
Beyond the pain such tariffs would cause U.S. households and businesses, they could also push the Federal Reserve to slow or even halt its cuts to interest rates. “Many” officials at the Fed’s last meeting earlier this month said they should lower rates gradually, according to the minutes released in the afternoon.
The talk about tariffs overshadowed another mixed set of profit reports from retailers that answered few questions about how much more shoppers can keep spending. They will need to stay resilient after helping the economy avoid a recession, despite the high interest rates imposed by the Fed to get inflation under control.
The Consumer Confidence report said that it had improved in November, but not by as much as economists expected. It rose to 111.7 from 109.6 which was the highest in more than a year.
The CaseShiller September home price index rose by 9.3% while October new home sales plunged by 17% which hurt the shares of housing stocks.
KSS tumbled by 17% after its results for the latest quarter fell short of analysts’ expectations. The CEO said sales remain soft for apparel and footwear. BBY fell 5% after likewise falling short of analysts’ expectations. DKS topped forecasts for the latest quarter thanks to a strong back-to-school season, but its stock lost an early gain to fall 1.4%.
JMS had one of the biggest gains and climbed 5.7% after topping analysts’ expectations for the latest quarter.
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady following their big drop from a day before driven by relief following the pick for Treasury secretary.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury inched up to 4.29% from 4.28% late Monday, but it’s still well below the 4.41% level where it ended last week.
In the crypto market, bitcoin continued to pull back after topping out at around $99,600 which fell just short of the nice round number that its backers were pushing for. It has now fallen back to $91,000, according to CoinDesk.
This is a sharp turnaround from the group that initially took over the crypto market following Trump’s election. That boom had also appeared to have spilled into some corners of the stock market. It has also led to a complete downside wipeout for buyers of calls in MSTR as high as would you believe 1080 this week in the not to be optimism for a stock that has collapsed to around 353 getting as high as 543 last week.
Third-quarter earnings season are coming to an end and the lineup for this holiday-shortened week is: yesterday – A, ZM, KSS, BBY, DKS, ANF lower; today - ADI, ADSK, CRWD, DELL, HPQ, WDAY lower and AMBA, NTNX and URBN higher.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – November Consumer Confidence rose to 111.7, November new home sales plunged by 17%; today - October P.C.E. report will be released at 10am, October durable goods orders rose by 0.2%, 3Q G.D.P. remained the same at 2.8%, October personal income and spending, weekly jobless claims came in at 213K.
