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November 21, 2024
DOW: 43,759
S&P: 5,928
Nasdaq: 18,877
10YR T-Note: 4.41%
Bitcoin: 96,776
VIX: 16.94
Gold: 2,670.80
Crude Oil:70.00
Prices Current as of 11:15 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In a day when the major indices were really down in the dumps for most of the session, things came back nicely very late for no apparent reason and ended positive to mixed, and how do you like that?
For instance, for whatever reason, the Dow did the best as a 194 negative showing in the morning went positive at 3:25pm and finished with an astounding 139 point positive close to 43,408. And it was gains in some stocks that have sold off lately that did the trick -AMGN, IBM and UNH and how do you like that, as there was no apparent fundamental reason for this movement, but who is complaining as it is always better for investors to see plusses after indices instead of minuses.
The S&P followed the same pattern with a really large morning decline of 56 points which astoundingly went nominally positive near the close and it ended 1 point higher at 5917 despite declines in NVDA, TSLA, AVGO, COST and GOOG.
The Nasdaq also made a roaring comeback with morning loss of 263 getting better into the close at “only” 21 to 18,966 as AAPL, of all things, made a strange move to positive from a morning loss of 2.39 to a positive close of .72 and is now starting out lower again today. So what was this all about?
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks did nothing with a 1 point gain to 2325 while the VIX rose to 17.16 which is also strange in the sense that it should have gone lower with the late equity gains but never mind.
The big loser of the day was TGT, which tumbled by 21%, following its report showing weaker profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The retailer also gave a forecast for profit in the upcoming holiday season that was below analysts’ estimates.
This performance stood in stark contrast to rival WMT which reported another quarter of stellar sales Tuesday and released optimistic projections for the holiday season.
Hints about how U.S. consumers are doing are under particular scrutiny, given that they’ll need to keep spending if the U.S. economy is to continue growing. Shoppers are contending with high prices across the economy and still-high interest rates.
Besides TGT, several lower-priced retailers were among the biggest losers in the S&P such as DG and DLTR and no surprises with either one of them.
On the winning end was WSM, which jumped 27% after the home retailer delivered better profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The parent of Pottery Barn also said it expects overall sales to fall by less this fiscal year than it had earlier forecast.
CMCSA gained after announcing the spinoff of USA, CNBC, MSNBC and other cable television networks into a standalone company that will have its own stock trading on the market.
The headliner of the day, week and perhaps the rest of the year was superstar NVDA which unveiled its results for the latest quarter. The company has grown into a nearly $3.6 trillion behemoth because of nearly insatiable demand for its chips used in AI technology. It has grown so fast, with its stock nearly tripling for the year so far, that pressure has grown for it to show it can keep leapfrogging past analysts’ already high expectations.
Its profit again topped analysts’ estimates but the stock traded initially lower and has now moved slightly higher ahead of the opening. If it stays here it will destroy many of the higher call options such as 150,000 and 113,000 volume call options for the strike prices of 150 and 160 calls for tomorrow’s expiration. Since it is a known fact that the majority of option buyers lose their money, perhaps the only nominal upside reaction of the stock to a “better” earnings report shows that this process could be working again. So let us see how this eventually resolves itself at tomorrow’s close.
Treasury yields held relatively steady in the bond market. The 10-year yield edged up to 4.41% from 4.40% late Tuesday. It has been generally rising from less than 3.70% in September.
In stock markets abroad, indexes moved modestly across much of Europe and Asia.
Earnings for the third quarter are coming to an end with the following lineup this week: yesterday – TGT, NIO down and WSM higher; today - the big one, namely NVDA is now higher plus SNOW, DE while PANW, JACK, BIDU are lower; tonight – GAP, INTU, ROST, WMG.
Economic reports will have: yesterday – October housing starts down by 3% and building permits off by 1%; today - October L.E.I., weekly jobless claims dipped to 213K which was the lowest since April, November Philadelphia Manufacturing Index slipped to -5.5; Friday – final November U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
