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November 14, 2024
DOW: 43927.52
S&P: 5977.2
Nasdaq: 19211.74
10YR T-Note: 4.43%
Bitcoin: 89255.05
VIX: 14.07
Gold: $2566.2
Crude Oil: $69.3
Prices Current as of 10:15 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market ended yesterday in a mixed fashion, with the S&P once again failing around the 6015 while the Dow ended higher and the Nasdaq ended lower.
The Dow finished with a 47 point advance which was well below its high of 230 point higher with gains from AMZN, HD and SHW providing the upside help.
The S&P was able to eke out a small gain of 1 point to 5985 as it once again could not hold the higher intraday levels of 6015 as it got help from the financials, AMZN which has shown recent strength, AAPL for a change and MSFT.
The Nasdaq closed lower by 50 points to 19,230 due to weakness in NVDA as well as COIN, MSTR and the semiconductors which have really been awful lately, such as MU and AMD.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks ended down by 22 to 2369 due to some smaller bank selling while the VIX continues to move lower, now at 14.02. This is starting to get closer to its long-term support at 10 and we shall see if it ever gets down to that level which would indicate a really overbought situation.
The big event of the day was the October C.P.I. report (see below for details)/ It did give some hope that there should be another interest rate cut in order to boost the economy further.
The bond market was also mixed after a report said the inflation that U.S. consumers felt last month was exactly as economists expected. It accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4%, but an underlying measure called “core inflation” did not accelerate. Such core inflation can be a better predictor of future trends, economists say, and the as-expected number boosted expectations for help coming from the Federal Reserve. Traders now see an improved probability of roughly 80% for a third cut at its meeting next month, according to data from CME Group.
Those expectations sent the yield for the two-year Treasury down to 4.27% from 4.34% late Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which also takes future economic growth more into account, fell initially after the inflation report. But it pared its loss and eventually rose to 4.45%, up from 4.43% late Tuesday.
The question is what will happen with rates in 2025. Prior forecasts published by the Fed implied it could keep cutting rates through next year. But the triumph in the presidential election may have scrambled such plans. Economists say the preferences for lower tax rates, higher tariffs and less regulation could ultimately lead to greater government debt and inflation, along with faster economic growth.
While lower interest rates can give a boost to the economy and to prices for investments, they can also give inflation more fuel.
Still, Wednesday’s data was reassuring for the market following a run of stronger-than-expected data on the economy, which could have signaled upward pressures on inflation.
RIVN jumped by 14% after the electric-vehicle company gave more details about a joint venture it is entering with Volkswagen Group that was previously announced. The deal’s total size could be worth up to $5.8 billion, which is more than the $5 billion the companies had previously said.
SAVE got clobbered by 59%. The airline said in a regulatory filing that it is still trying to work out a deal to renegotiate the repayment of its debt. If it can reach an agreement, the airline said it could wipe out the company’s stockholders, but it could also protect employees and customers.
In stock markets abroad, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.7% after its wholesale inflation rate reached its highest level since July of last year. South Korea’s Kospi sank 2.6% after Samsung Electronics shares fell to their lowest level in over four years.
Indexes were modestly lower across much of the rest of Asia and Europe.
In the crypto market, bitcoin crossed above $93,000 as cryptocurrencies generally soared, before pulling back below $90,000 in afternoon trading. The new President has fallen in love with this area and pledged to make his country the crypto capital of the world. It was therefore peculiar that two stocks involved in this measure, namely COIN and MSTR both continued to get clobbered while this rise to new highs in crypto was soaring upward.
Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that has been a favorite of Tesla’s Elon Musk, also gave up some of its gain from earlier in the day. Trump named Musk as one of the heads of a “Department of Government Efficiency”, or DOGE for short.
Third-quarter earnings season is starting to wind down and the lineup for this week includes: yesterday - FLUT, SPOT, CAVA, HNST, OXY higher while CART, RUM, SOUN, MARA, SWKS lower; today - Dow component CSCO lower and DIS higher in addition to BZH, while AAP, JJSF are down; tonight – AMAT, BABA.
Economic reports will see: yesterday - October C.P.I. came in as expected with a 0.2% gain and 0.3% excluding food and energy. Year over year the advance was 2.6% and 3.3% excluding food and energy; today - October P.P.I. rose by 0.2% and ex-food and energy was higher by 0.3% plus weekly jobless claims eased back to 217,000; Friday – October retail sales and October industrial production and capacity utilization.
