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November 13, 2024
DOW: 44,101
S&P: 5997
Nasdaq: 19,308
10YR T-Note: 4.41%
Bitcoin: 92,534
VIX: 13,92
Gold: $2591
Crude Oil: $68,21
Prices Current as of 12:10 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After five straight huge upside sessions, the market cooled off yesterday as the VIX got to a low level and the resistance over 6,000 in the S&P made itself known for the time being.
As a result, the Dow was the weakest item as it ended with a closing decline of 382 down to 43,910 led by selling in AMGN, AXP, BA, CAT, SHW, GS, UNH and HD after a higher earnings start.
The S&P did less bad with a 17 point loss to 5984 with LLY continuing its recent downtrend, and high-flying GEV and TSLA finally getting some selling after their recent atmospheric explosions.
The Nasdaq tried to hang in there and ended 17 points down to 19,281 as gains in recently soft AMZN, MSFT, ADBE, META plus ADBE and better performing NFLX tried to stem the downside.
And the item that people were falling in love with, namely the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks, finally took a downside hit of 443 points to 2391 as it was getting ready to challenge its best ever level from three years ago on weakness in small banks.
And the VIX actually ended a little down to 14.71 which is really unusual on a day when all of the major indices were lower as well.
Stocks had been rising since the latest election results were finalized on expectations that the new President’s preference for lower tax rates and other policies may mean faster economic growth, as well as bigger U.S. government debt and higher inflation. Some areas of the market rocketed strongly, such as smaller U.S. stocks seen as benefiting the most from Trump’s America First ideas.
They gave back some of their big gains Tuesday, and the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell a market-leading 1.8%. Even TSLA, which is run by his ally Elon Musk, sank. It dropped 6% for its first loss since before Election Day.
The stock that’s become most entwined with Trump’s popularity, DJT fell by almost 9%.
AS mentioned, Dow component UNH was one of the heaviest weights and fell 1.7% after the Department of Justice tries to block its $3.3 billion purchase of Amedisys, saying the deal would hinder access to home health and hospice services and the latter sank by the same percentage well.
A jump in Treasury yields also added pressure on the stock market, as trading of U.S. government bonds resumed following Monday’s Veterans Day holiday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.42% from 4.31% late Friday, which is a notable move for the bond market.
Treasury yields have been climbing sharply since September, in large part because the U.S. economy has remained much more resilient than feared. The rise in yields has also been because of Trump. He talks up tariffs and other policies that economists say could results in inflation and the U.S> government debt higher. That puts upward pressure on Treasury yields and could hinder the Fed’s plans to cut interest rates. While lower rates can boost the economy, they can also give inflation more fuel.
The next update on inflation arrived this morning with the October C.P.I. report which showed that
Doing better was LYV, which joined the lengthening list of companies delivering stronger profit for the summer than analysts expected. The company behind Ticketmaster said concert fans around the world are spending more to hear artists, and it said trends are already encouraging for 2025 stadium tours for Coldplay and others. Its stock rose almost 5%.
TSN jumped 6.5% after likewise topping analysts’ forecasts for profit. The producer of beef, chicken and pork also raised its dividend for investors.
Dow component HD slipped by .3% despite beating expectations, as it continues to contend with a pullback in spending by customers.
Stocks usually rally following close elections, but this spurt is clearly faster than prior ones, as it has the S&P on track to deliver a return of more than 20% for a second straight year. Apparently, this has happened only three times in the past 100 years.
In the crypto market, bitcoin soared to another record before pulling back. Trump has embraced this area generally and pledged to make this country the crypto capital of the world. Bitcoin got as high as $89,995, according to CoinDesk, before dipping back toward $89,500. It started the year below $43,000.
In stock markets abroad, indexes fell across much of Europe and Asia. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 2.8% for one of the worst declines. It closed below the 20,000 level for the first time since China announced a stimulus package in September.
Third-quarter earnings season is starting to wind down and the lineup for this week includes: yesterday - IAC, LYV, SHOP, TSN higher and Dow component HD ended down after a better start; today – FLUT, SPOT, CAVA, HNST, OXY higher while CART, RUM, SOUN, MARA, SWKS lower; tonight - Dow component CSCO plus BZH, JJSF; Thursday – Dow component DIS and AAP, AMAT, BABA.
Economic reports will see: today - October C.P.I. came in as expected with a 0.2% gain and 0.3% excluding food and energy. Year over year the advance was 2.6% and 3.3% excluding food and energy; Thursday – October P.P.I. plus weekly jobless claims; Friday – October retail sales and October industrial production and capacity utilization.
