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November 12, 2024
DOW: 44364.35
S&P: 6005.87
Nasdaq: 19290.48
10YR T-Note: 4.39%
Bitcoin: 86018.8
VIX: 15.18
Gold: $2621.3
Crude Oil: $69.04
Prices Current as of 9:30 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Once again, the major indices rose to start the new week, with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq attaining their best ever levels, as the leaders once again were those that are seen as benefiting the most from the new President’s agenda, but drops for some high-profile Big Tech stocks kept indexes in check.
The Dow made another huge gain of 304 points to 44,793 led by financials, CRM at a new record, HON and UNH.
The S&P finally made a close over 6000 at 6001 on a late upward push helped by the financials, industrials and bitcoin. The Nasdaq only advanced by 12 to 19,298 but the NDX was restrained by weakness in semiconductors and the other leading technology gainers such as AAPL, AMZN, AMD, MU, META and AVGO.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks did really well with a 38 point gain to 2437 and is starting to approach its record high from three years ago while the VIX remained unchanged at 14.94, perhaps a sign that it has gotten as low as possible due to the recent equity strength.
TLSA was once again one of the strongest upside forces with another huge gain as its leader has become a close ally of the new President and its stock jumped nearly 15% the day after the election and has kept rising.
Several pieces of what is known as those issues favorable to the new President also helped drive the market, as investors try to identify which companies will be winners in a second term for this person. JPM rose and the financial stocks again helped lead the market on expectations for stronger economic growth, less regulation from Washington and an increase in mergers and acquisitions.
A White House more friendly to big tie-ups has helped investors speculate about a merger between insurers CIG and HUM, for example. This has become so feverish that the former said that it isn’t pursuing a deal with the latter and the former gained while the latter sank.
Stocks of companies more focused on the U.S. economy were also rising more than the rest of the market, including a 1.5% rally for the smaller stocks in the RUT index, because they are seen as benefiting more from the new America First policies than big multinational companies.
Such Big Tech stocks have rocketed higher on excitement about artificial-intelligence technology, and they had been gaining almost regardless of what the economy was doing. Now, though, critics say their prices look too expensive, and investors are finding more interesting buys among companies that could benefit more from a new second term.
ABBV fell by 12% after saying trials investigating its treatment for some adults with schizophrenia failed to show statistically significant improvement compared with a placebo group at week six.
Some of the sharpest swings were in the crypto market where bitcoin rose above $87,000 for the first time. The new embrace of cryptocurrencies has been seen as a pledge to make this country the crypto capital of the world. Bitcoin hit a record of $87,491, according to CoinDesk.
Another trade has been a rise in Treasury yields, as traders anticipate potentially higher economic growth, U.S. government debt and inflation because of new policies. But trading in the bond market was closed Monday in observance of Veterans Day.
Treasury yields have been generally climbing since September, in large part because the U.S. economy has remained much more resilient than feared. The hope is that it can continue to solidify as the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates in order to keep the job market moving along, now that it helped get inflation nearly down to its 2% target.
But Trump’s win has scrambled expectations for coming cuts to rates. Traders have already begun paring forecasts for how many the Fed will deliver next year. While lower rates can boost the economy, they can also give inflation more fuel.
Still, many professional investors warn not to get carried away by all the big swings following Trump’s victory. It takes time to see what campaign promises turn into actual policy, and that can lead to snaps back for the market’s initial knee-jerk reactions.
The U.S. stock market is also broadly looking more expensive, as prices continue to run up faster than corporate profits.
Stock markets abroad have swung following Trump’s election amid worries about increased tariffs and disruptions to global trade. They were mixed Monday, with European indexes rising while South Korea’s and Hong Kong’s sank.
Third-quarter earnings season is starting to wind down and the lineup for this week includes: today – SAVE higher; today – IAC, LYV, SHOP, TSN higher plus Dow component HD up as well; Wednesday – Dow component CSCO and BZH, JJSF; Thursday – Dow component DIS and AAP, AMAT, BABA.
Economic reports will see: Wednesday – October C.P.I.; Thursday – October P.P.I. plus weekly jobless claims; Friday – October retail sales and October industrial production and capacity utilization.
