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May 8, 2024
- Dow: 38,966
- S&P 500: 5,184
- Nasdaq: 16,291
- 10YR T-Note: 4.48%
- Bitcoin: 62,254
- VIX: 13.23
- Gold: $2,326
- Crude Oil: $78.97
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After all of the volatile moves in the market lately in both directions, things sort of calmed down yesterday with relatively minor moves in the major indices.
The Dow ended quietly higher with a 32 point closing advance led by gains in CAT, MRK, and UNH. This was its fifth straight advance, which was the most since last December.
The SPX ended 7 points higher at 5188, with some of the large technology stocks doing better in addition to industrial issues. This was its fourth straight higher showing while the Nasdaq eased down by 16 due to some selling in NVDA, TSLA, MSTR, and SMCI. It ended at 16,332.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks gained again with a 4 point advance to 2064, which was its fifth straight gain while the VIX eased back to 13.23, which starts to get it closer to its longer-term support at 12.40 and could indicate perhaps a cooling off in the overall market after the recent advances.
KVUE, the company whose brands include Band-Aids and Tylenol, rose 6% after topping analysts’ forecasts for both profit and revenue in the latest quarter. Dow component DIS sank almost 10% despite reporting stronger results for its latest quarter than analysts expected. Its revenue fell a bit shy of forecasts, and it expects its entertainment streaming business to soften in the current quarter.
They are among the tail end of companies reporting their results for the first three months of the year. The majority of companies have so far been beating forecasts for earnings, but they’re not getting as big a boost to their stock prices afterward as they usually do, according to FactSet. Not only that, companies that fall short of profit expectations have seen their stock prices sink by more the following day than they have historically.
That could suggest investors are listening to critics who have been calling the U.S. stock market broadly too expensive following its run to records this year. For stock prices to climb further, either profits will need to grow more or interest rates will need to fall. Investors still consider the latter a possibility this year following some events last week that traders found encouraging.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank remains closer to cutting its main interest rate than hiking it, despite a string of higher readings on inflation this year. A cooler than expected jobs report on Friday, meanwhile, suggested the U.S. economy could pull off the balancing act of staying solid enough to avoid a bad recession without being so strong that it keeps inflation too high.
After charging higher through the start of this year when hopes dimmed for cuts to interest rates by the Federal Reserve, Treasury yields have been regressing this month to offer some relief for the stock market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.45% from 4.49% late Monday. The two-year yield, which moves more closely with expectations for the Fed, slipped to 4.82% from 4.83%.
CROX made a nice gain after reporting better profit and revenue than expected. It benefited from strong growth internationally. IFF, which makes ingredients used in food and perfume, gained 6% after reporting better profit and revenue than expected. It also said it expects its revenue for the full year to come in at the higher end of its forecasted range.
LCID tumbled by 14% after the electric-vehicle maker reported a worse loss for the latest quarter than analysts expected. BLDR collapsed by 19% despite topping forecasts for profit and revenue. The supplier of building products said a weakening multi-family market and higher mortgage rates were creating challenges, and its forecast for how much cash it will generate this year came in below some analysts’ expectations.
Earnings this week include: yesterday – PLTR, MCHP, LCID, BLDR and Dow component DIS are lower while SPG, KVUE, IFF, CROX were higher; today - ANET, LYFT, RDDT, AFRM higher while UBER, TRIP, RIVN, DECK, SHOP and CHK are lower; Thursday – AKAM, RBLX, YELP; Friday – AMCX.
