.png)
March 6, 2025
Dow: 42,750
S&P: 5796
Nasdaq: 18,403
10-YR T-Note: 4.29%
Bitcoin: 89,723
VIX: 23.74
Gold: 2,913
Crude Oil: 66.47
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Hopefully the administration will perhaps learn that the heavy imposition of tariffs is not something that the stock market wants, because it has suffered large declines when the President is aggressive about it and strong gains, like yesterday, when the government eases back on the pressure.
The market did very nicely yesterday after the President pulled back on some of his tariffs temporarily and this move revived hope that he may avoid a worst-case trade war that grinds down economies and sends inflation higher.
As an example, the Dow gained 485 points to 43,006 led by gains in AMGN, CAT, GS and MSFT which finally woke up from what had been a very poor performance lately.
The S&P 500 gained 64 to 5842 from a sell-off that had erased all of its gains since Election Day with help from most of the large technologies, except for AAPL, which seems to be in a current downside funk and the financials also did well after their poor performance recently as well.
The Nasdaq also got the ball rolling with a 267 point advance to 18,532 as such names as TSLA, MSTR, MSFT and NVDA also did well after sluggish recent performances lately.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks came along for the upside ride to 2100 while the VIX finally gave up some of its recent advances and fell back to 21.93.
The market turned sharply higher after Trump said he is granting a one-month exemption for U.S. automakers on his stiff new tariffs for Mexican and Canadian imports. He made the move after talking with Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, which owns Chrysler.
All of the Big Three automakers could have been hurt by such tariffs because of how much production happens across the countries, but all did well as a result.
The worry has been that such tariffs would not only hurt profits for companies but also jack up prices for cars and other bills for U.S. households already struggling with still-high inflation. The hope is that he is using the threat of tariffs as a tool for negotiation and that he may ultimately institute less painful moves for the economy and global trade if he can win what he wants.
Of course, Trump did not roll back all of the tariffs he announced on the United States’ largest trading partners, including on China. His latest move may also simply add more uncertainty to a market that has been reeling from it. It was just on Monday that Trump had said there was “no room” left for negotiations that could lower the tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which took effect Tuesday and resulted in a tumble for stocks.
Even if tariffs ultimately end up being less harsh than feared, just the threat of them has already had a negative effect on U.S. households and businesses.
Confidence among U.S. consumers has soured due to expectations of higher inflation because of tariffs. Businesses, meanwhile, are struggling to keep up with all the changes coming from Washington, and U.S. manufacturers said their growth is tumbling amid worries about tariffs.
A report said growth for U.S. finance, real estate and other businesses in the services sector is better than economists expected at 53.5 while the price index rose in most categories.
The U.S. economy ended last year running at a solid pace. If it were to weaken sharply, the Fed could cut its main interest rate in hopes of making borrowing easier. But rate cuts put upward pressure on inflation. If prices for eggs and other everyday items were rising because of tariffs, that could box in the Fed.
For his part, Trump said in an address before Congress Tuesday night that he’s going ahead with tariffs, with more on track to go into effect on April 2nd.
“Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again,” he said. “And it’s happening and it will happen rather quickly. But he also added that there will be a “little disturbance, but we’re OK with that.” And who is he referring to?
BF jumped 10% after the company behind Jack Daniel’s whiskey reported stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Perhaps more importantly, the C.E.O. also said his company isn’t changing its forecasts for upcoming sales, even as “we anticipate continued uncertainty and headwinds in the external environment.”
He said the decision by Canadian provinces to take U.S. whiskeys off their store shelves is “worse than a tariff because it’s literally taking your sales away,” adding that the action is “a very disproportionate response to a 25% tariff.” But he also said Canada accounted for only 1% of Brown-Forman’s total sales.
CPB continued its long-term losing streak after cutting some of its financial forecasts, citing discouraging trends for its snack products.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.28% following the report on U.S. services businesses from 4.18% just before. That helped it recover some of its sharp slide since January, when it was approaching 4.80%, after worries about the economy’s growth weighed on yields.
In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across much of Asian and Europe. Indexes climbed 2.8% in Hong Kong, 1.2% in South Korea, and 1.6% in France.
German stocks rallied 3.4% as the prospective partners in the country’s next government said they want to loosen rules that would allow for more debt.
Stocks outside the United States have done better than those in the S&P, even with Trump’s America-First policies.
And after yesterday’s terrific upside day, things are going to start out horribly lower once again, and this has to do with uncertainty over what the final administration trade policies are going to be and any potential retaliation from our main trading partners.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday - CPB, ROST, BOX, CRWD, ANF, THO lower and FLH higher; today – MBO, MRVL, M lower and ZS, VSCO, JWN higher plus tonight - BURL, COST, GPS.
Economic reports are: yesterday - ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey rose to 53.5 but the prices paid index rose, January factory orders gained 1.7%, Fed Beige Book said that economic activity gained slightly but with lower consumer spending; today – January trade balance hit a record low of $131 billion, weekly jobless claims fell to 221K and unit labor costs eased a bit to 2.2%; Friday – February jobs report for which the estimate is 160,000 and the unemployment rate remains at 4%.
