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March 31, 2025
Dow: 41,629
S&P: 5542
Nasdaq: 17,012
10-YR T-Note: 4.20%
Bitcoin: 82,026
VIX: 24.25
Gold: $3,155
Crude Oil: 69.67
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Another awful session ended the week on Friday as a potentially bad mix of worsening inflation and a slowing U.S. economy because of households afraid to spend due to the global trade war put the S&P down by 2% for one of its worst days in the last two years. It ended lower for the fifth week in the last six after experiencing what had been a big gain to start the week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 715 points, or 1.7% to 41,583 while the S&P got cratered by 112 to 5580 with the Nasdaq collapsing by 481 to 17, 322. The VIX loved this collapse and rose to 21.65.
LULU dropped by 14% even though the seller of athletic apparel reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. But It warned that its revenue growth may slow this upcoming year, in part because “consumers are spending less due to increased concerns about inflation and the economy,” said its C.E.O.
OXM, the company behind the Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer brands, likewise reported stronger results for the latest quarter than expected but still saw its stock fall by 6%. Its CEO said it saw a “deterioration in consumer sentiment that also weighed on demand” beginning in January, which accelerated into February.
These are discouraging data points when one of the main worries hitting the markets is that the is that the President’s escalating tariffs may cause U.S. households and businesses to cut back their spending. Even if the tariffs end up being less painful than feared, all the uncertainty may filter into changed behaviors that hurt the economy.
A report on Friday showed all types of U.S. consumers are getting more pessimistic about their future finances. Two out of three expect unemployment to worsen in the year ahead, according to the final Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan. That is the highest reading since 2009, and it raises worries about a job market that has been a linchpin keeping the U.S. economy solid.
A separate report also raised concerns after it showed a widely followed, underlying measure of inflation was a touch worse last month than economists expected. The P.C.E. month over month increase was 0.3% while it was 2.5% year over year, which is okay, but the core rate gained 0.4% and 2.8% on a yearly basis, which was not good. It followed reports on other measures of inflation for February, but this is the one the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to as it decides what to do with interest rates.
The report also showed that an underlying measure of how much income Americans are making, which excludes government social benefits and some other items, has been treading water for the last three months.
“Households aren’t in a good place to absorb a little tariff pain,” an analyst said. “The Fed isn’t likely to run to the rescue either as inflation moved up more than expected in February.”
The Fed could return to cutting interest rates, like it was doing late last year, in order to give the economy and financial markets a boost. But such cuts would also push upward on inflation, which has been above the Fed’s 2% target.
Before today’s downside disaster, the S&P and Nasdaq have been lower for 5 out of the past 6 weeks with declines before today of around 7% for the Nasdaq this month, around 6% for the S&P and 5% for the Dow.
The economy and job market have been holding up so far, but if they were to weaken while inflation stays high, it would produce a worst-case scenario called “stagflation.” Policy makers in Washington have few good tools to fix it.
Some of the sharpest losses on Friday hit companies that need customers feeling confident enough to spend, and not just on yoga wear or beach clothes, as DLTA, CEZ and DPPZ all sank by at least 5%.
The heaviest weights on the market were naturally AAPL, MSFT and other Big Tech stocks, whose massive sizes give their movements more sway over indexes. They and other stocks that had gotten caught up in the frenzy around AI technology have been among the hardest hit in the recent sell-off. CoreWeave, whose cloud platform helps customers manage complex AI infrastructure, was flat in its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.
On the flip side, among the relatively few rising stocks were those that can make money almost regardless of what the economy does, such as utilities.
Stock markets worldwide will likely remain shaky as an April 2nd deadline approaches for more tariffs. That’s what Trump has called “Liberation Day,” when he will roll out tariffs tailored to each of the United States’ trading partners.
In stock markets abroad, indexes fell sharply in Japan and South Korea as automakers felt more pressure following Trump’s announcement that he plans to impose 25% tariffs on auto imports, as Hyundai fell 2.6% in Seoul, while Honda fell 2.6%, and Toyota sank 2.8% in Tokyo.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury tumbled to 4.25% from 4.38% late Thursday. It tends to fall when expectations for either U.S. economic growth or inflation are on the wane.
Earnings this week will have: today – PVH; Wednesday – RH; Thursday – CAG.
Economic reports will see: today – March Chicago P.M.I. came in at 47.6; Tuesday – February construction spending, February JOLTS job openings; Wednesday – February factory orders; Thursday – February trade balance, weekly jobless claims; Friday – March nonfarm payrolls report which is expected to show 125,000, down from 151,000 and the unemployment rate, up to 4.2%, up from 4.1%.
