.png)
March 25, 2025
Dow: 42,583
S&P: 5775
Nasdaq: 18,229
10-YR T-Note: 4.33%
Bitcoin: 87,240
VIX: 17.10
Gold: $3,040
Crude Oil: 68.30
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After that very late in the day comeback on Friday which broke the four-week losing streak for both the S&P and Nasdaq, things really took off to the upside yesterday with tremendous gains for all of the indices which has now cut their yearly losses by a great amount.
The Dow made a huge gain of 598 points to 42, 583 led by the financials, V and some technology issues like NVDA, AMZN, IBM and even AAPL came along again for the upside ride.
The S&P did even better with a 100 point advance to 5767 also led by technology stocks plus the financials while the Nasdaq rose by 404 to 18,188 led by TSLA for the second day in a row, plus BKNG and MSTR. The index has lost 1.9% so far this year out of concerns that a trade war could hinder economic growth and increase inflationary pressures.
Even the Russell 2000 Index did well on gains in financials at up 52 to 2108 while the VIX continued its recent collapse down to 17.48.
The gains were due to hopes that the Trump administration may take a more targeted approach as it tees up a new round of tariffs on imported goods next week.
A new round of tariffs scheduled to be implemented on April 2nd could also be softened or postponed rather than take effect.
The President has been somewhat closely guarded about his plans for tariffs, saying Monday that even though he wants to charge “reciprocal” rates — import taxes to match the rates charged by other countries -- that “we might be even nicer than that.”
The exact breadth and scale of the tariffs remain to be seen, and a cycle of tit-for-tat escalation is also possible in the weeks following the announcement, potentially triggering further bouts of market volatility.
Gains on Monday were broad, with 84% of stocks within the S&P 500 ending higher. Nearly every sector within the index rose.
Technology stocks helped lead the way. The sector has been the driving force behind much of the broader markets movement, whether up or down. The stocks are among the most valuable and tend to have an outsized impact on the broader market’s direction.
TSLA rose by 12% for the biggest gain among S&P stocks. The electric vehicle maker is still down by about 31% for the year. It has been struggling on worries that customers are turned off by CEO Elon Musk’s leading efforts to slash spending by the U.S. government.
Genetics testing company 23andme lost more than half its value after it announced over the weekend that it had initiated voluntary bankruptcy proceedings.
In the bond market, Treasury yields rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.34% from 4.25% late Friday.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang struck a conciliatory tone during a meeting with business leaders and U.S. Senator Steve Daines, a strong supporter of the President who is the first member of Congress to visit Beijing since Trump took office in January.
Recent economic reports have shown that the underlying economy remains strong, but that consumers are becoming more worried and cautious. They have also shown that inflation remains stubborn.
Stubborn inflation has prompted more caution from the Fed, which started cutting its benchmark interest rate at the end of 2024. Those cuts came after the central bank raised interest rates in order to cool inflation from a two-decade high.
Several measures of inflation show that interest rates remain just above the Fed’s goal of 2%. The U.S. trade war with its key trading partners has threatened to reignite inflation and the Fed is holding off on further cutting interest rates to see how inflation and the broader economy reacts.
As of now, their latest projection is for two rate cuts this year, although that can change depending on circumstances.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday – KBH, ME lower; today – MKC, PAYX lower, tonight - GME; Wednesday – CHWY, DLTR,JEF; Thursday – WGO, LULU.
Economic reports will have: yesterday - S&P Manufacturing and Services Purchases Manager’s Index for March which came in at 49.8 and a gain to 54.3; today – March Consumer Confidence slipped to 92.9 which was the lowest since 2021, February new home sales gained 1.8%, Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Survey fell in March to -32.5; Wednesday – February durable goods orders; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, final looks at 4Q G.D.P.; Friday – the always important February P.C.E. Index, final March U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
