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March 24, 2025
Dow: 42,500
S&P: 5753
Nasdaq: 18,129
10-YR T-Note: 4.30%
Bitcoin: 87,560
VIX: 18.80
Gold: $3,031
Crude Oil: 68.30
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market on Friday was able to turn a very weak start into a late rally to actually end slightly positive for the day, and much of the volatile action had to do with the quarterly options expiration that occurred on the third Friday of March, and this activity will take place three other times this year with no guarantee that the results will be the same.
After Thursday’s rally, the market initially did its usual thing with initial indications of a sharply lower indication the following day, with the Dow beginning 520 points down, the S&P off by 60 while the Nasdaq traded down 217 to start things off.
From those awful early levels, things began to improve and get slightly positive very late in the session as the Dow ended higher by 32 to 41,985 with help from technology laggards AAPL of all things and MSFT, in addition to BA on the receipt of new military orders, IBM and UNH.
The S&P eventually gained 4 points late in the session to 5667 on those higher technology advances and in the process it broke a four-week losing streak even though the majority of members ended lower, and this was a rare recent example of what used to happen formerly, namely the still heavy-market weights of the former Mag 7 stocks are still so strong that by moving higher, they can overcome the fact that most stocks in the index ended lower. The good news was that this higher close broke the four lower weeks in a row for the index in addition to the Nasdaq, which was helped by TSLA of all things and turned its large initial loss into a closing gain of 92 up to 17,784.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks ended slightly lower with an 11 point loss to 2057 and the VIX continued its recent downtrend with a close at 19.28.
Stocks have been losing ground for weeks over uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy. A trade war between the U.S. and its key trading partners threatens to worsen inflation and hurt both consumers and businesses. Inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2% and tariffs could hurt the central bank’s efforts to ease the rate of inflation.
The President has set an April 2nd deadline to impose more tariffs on trading partners. It follows a series of other deadlines that have been set for tariffs only to be postponed, sometimes at the last minute.
And sure enough on Friday, he suggested there could be some "flexibility" in how he imposes those duties, even as he suggested he did not want to grant many requests for exemptions.
This is where things stand on various other, related fronts:
Steel and aluminum: A 25% US tariff on imports of steel and aluminum from all countries took effect on Wednesday, March 12.
European Union: The EU has responded to those metals duties with counter-tariffs on $28 billion in U.S. goods from April, bringing Trump's trade war across the Atlantic. However, on Thursday, the EU delayed the implementation of some of those tariffs until mid-April — including a 50% duty on American whiskey, which had prompted Trump to threaten a 200% tariff on European spirits.
Canada and Mexico: Trump’s 25% across the board tariffs on its U.S. neighbors went into effect on Tuesday, March 4. Just two days later, Trump confirmed the US would pause tariffs on goods and services compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) until April 2. For its part, Canada retaliated to the steel and aluminum tariffs with new duties on about $20 billion of US goods. The two countries have agreed to new trade talks.
China: Trump has enacted new blanket tariffs of around 20% on top of existing 10% duties that went into place during Trump's first term. China has responded with up to 15% duties on US farm goods such as chicken and pork, which went into effect Monday, March 10.
Businesses have been warning investors about tariffs, inflation and growing uncertainty about the impact to costs.
NKE slumped after it forecast a steep decline in revenue in the current quarter, blaming geopolitical dynamics, new tariffs by the Trump administration and a less confident consumer.
FDX tumbled after the package delivery company said it expects revenue to be flat to slightly down year-over-year and lowered its per-share profit guidance.
Homebuilder LEN fell after giving investors a weaker-than-expected forecast for new orders and average sales prices for the current quarter. It said high interest rates, inflation, and waning consumer confidence are weighing on an already tough housing market.
High interest rates have been a key issue for the housing market, as the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at its most recent meeting last week as it assesses the potential impact from tariffs and other U.S. policy shifts.
The Fed cut interest rates through the end of last year amid consistently easing inflation rates, but has been holding steady so far in 2025. Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged that the economy remains solid, but stressed that uncertainty is making forecasting difficult.
A recent batch of economic reports on home sales, industrial production and unemployment reinforced the view that the economy is holding strong. But other reports on consumer sentiment and retail sales have revealed rising caution from consumers.
In the bond market, Treasury yields mostly held steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.25% from 4.23% late Thursday.
Airlines were under pressure. A fire knocked out power at London’s Heathrow Airport, forcing it to shut down and disrupting global travel for hundreds of thousands of passengers. RYANN fell, along with most U.S. carriers.
Troubled airplane maker BA rose the President said that this company will build the Air Force’s future fighter jet. The company has been facing scrutiny over safety issues for years.
Its rival in the defense sector, LMT, slumped as a result of tohis decision.
Markets in Europe fell. Britain’s FTSE 100 shed 0.6% after the Bank of England held its main interest rate steady a day earlier.
Germany’s DAX slipped 0.5%. German lawmakers voted for a budget that will boost defense and infrastructure spending.
Earnings this week will see: today – KBH, OKLO; Tuesday – GME, MKC; Wednesday – CHWY, DLTR, PAYX, JEF; Thursday – WGO, LULU.
Economic reports will have: S&P Manufacturing and Services Purchases Manager’s Index for March; Tuesday – March Consumer Confidence, February new home sales; Wednesday – February durable goods orders; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, final looks at 4Q G.D.P.; Friday – the always important February P.C.E. Index, final March U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
