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March 21, 2025
Dow: 41,501
S&P: 5611
Nasdaq: 17,550
10-YR T-Note: 4.20%
Bitcoin: 83,800
VIX: 20.26
Gold: $3,041
Crude Oil: 67.00
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After starting out sharply lower and then making strong intraday rallies off of their lows, the market faded out once again in the afternoon, reminding investors that potential big, unsettling policy changes are underway because of the President’s actions along with more signals suggesting the U.S. economy remains okay for now.
For instance, the Dow began with a large decline from which it rallied to a late morning gain of 283, from which level it turned right back down again to end with a closing loss of 11 to 41,953.
The S&P followed the same pattern with an early decline getting back up to a 36 point gain, which also fell back to a closing decline of 12 points back to 5,662 as this index has had trouble lately overcoming the 5,700 level on the upside as surprise, surprise, the large technology stocks mostly ended lower after the prior day’s gains and some intraday advances on the high, which then all disappeared at the end.
The Nasdaq also made a strong reversal as well, with a 173 point negative start becoming a fast gain of 180 which then reversed itself to also end lower by 59 points to 17,691 also on technology gains disappeared in the afternoon. This is now the fifth straight week of negative activity going into today’s March options expiration.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks also ended lower by 13 down to 2068 while the VIX actually had the nerve to end down on the session to 19.8, which seems really bizarre.
And one thing I would like to comment on, which is that the main host on the morning show said that he did not think that the values of the various stock index futures mean little during the day, and guess what – those lower early futures ended exactly where they were at the session close, so I assume that they do some value.
The market has been moving for weeks on a roller-coaster ride, as equity prices veer on uncertainty about what Trump’s trade war will do to the economy. Things went higher on Wednesday after the Fed Chair said the economy remains solid enough at the moment to leave interest rates where they are.
More data arrived yesterday to bolster that view, as weekly jobless claims remained steady at 223,000, which means a quite labor market for the time being.
The February existing home sales went higher up to 11.2% while the third report said that the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at 12, which was better in the mid-Atlantic region than economists expected
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But Fed Chair Powell also stressed on Wednesday that extremely high uncertainty is making it difficult to forecast what will happen next.
It is not just uncertainty about the trade war that is affecting the market as AACT fell to one of the market’s larger losses on Thursday, even though the consulting and professional services company reported slightly better profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
Worries are rising about the hit Accenture may take to its revenue from the U.S. government as Elon Musk leads efforts to cut spending. The federal government accounted for 17% of Accenture’s North American revenue last fiscal year, and its stock sank by 7%.
The broad U.S. stock market was likely due for its recent drop, which took the S&P to more than 10% into a correction last week, after some believe that prices climbed much faster than corporate profits to make it look too expensive.
DRI climbed after reporting profit for the latest quarter that matched analysts’ expectations. That was despite what the company behind Olive Garden, Ruth’s Chris Steak House and other restaurant chains called “a challenging environment.”
And how about the fact that aside from using the White House lawn as a free showroom for its autos, the Commerce Secretary issued a “buy” rating on the stock at these more than 50% lower collapse for TSLA, which seems bit of an unusual situation for a cabinet member to be involved with.
In stock markets abroad, London’s FTSE 100 fell 0.1% after the Bank of England held its main interest rates steady.
Indexes fell more sharply across much of the rest of Europe, and German stocks in the DAX lost 1.2%. The drop was even worse in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng index fell 2.2% following heavy pressure on tech-related stocks.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.23% from 4.25% late Wednesday.
Earnings this week include: yesterday – FIVE, JBL, DRI higher and CAN lower; today – MU, FDS, FDX, LEN, NKE lower.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – weekly jobless claims at 223,000, February L.E.I. down by 0.3%, February existing home sales higher by 11%, February Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey up by 12.
