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March 19, 2025
Dow: 41,606
S&P: 5620
Nasdaq: 18,000
10-YR T-Note: 4.28%
Bitcoin: 83,620
VIX: 21.62
Gold: $3,048
Crude Oil: 66.79
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After two straight higher days, the market yesterday returned back down to its main pattern this year, which has been sharply lower.
The Dow did better than the other indices with a closing decline of 260 down to 41,581 as minor gains in CVX, JNJ, JPM and UNH brought a measure of some stability to this index.
The S&P got clocked to the tune of 60 points to 5614 as once again, it was the technology former superstars that got hit the most. And as a weak example of how this worked, former superstar C.E.O Jensen Huang gave a presentation speech wearing a leather jacket starting in the afternoon at a luxurious setting that looked like an Elvis Pressley show in Las Vegas against a luxurious, glamorous backdrop, making a presentation about ideas for the company going forward. But instead of helping the stock do better, it actually fell back another 1.5 points in admittedly was a terrible day for the market.
There were also hundreds of thousands of calls and puts being traded and let us see how that works out with three more days to go this week.
The Nasdaq did awful again on a 304 point decline on weakness in the former technology highfliers down to 17,504 while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks gave way of 18 points down to 2050. The Vix loved the downside action with a rise to 21.70.
Another downside disaster was TSLA after falling another 5%. The electric-vehicle maker’s stock has been struggling on worries that it will lose sales because of anger at its C.E.O. Elon Musk, who has been leading efforts to cut spending by the U.S. government. EV rivals, meanwhile, continue to chip away at its business.
Alphabet sank after the owner of GOOG said it would buy cybersecurity firm WIZ for $32 billion. It would be the company’s most expensive purchase in its 26-year history, and it could boost the tech giant’s in-house cloud computing amid burgeoning AI growth.
The drop for big tech continues a trend that has taken hold in the market’s recent sell-off: Stocks whose momentum had earlier seemed unstoppable have since dropped sharply following criticism that they had simply grown too expensive.
They have been among the biggest losers as investors retrench amid uncertainty about what the President’s trade war will do to the economy. Trump’s back and forth announcements on tariffs and other policies have created worries that U.S. households and businesses could hold on to their spending, which would hurt the economy.
It all makes things more complicated for the Federal Reserve, which will make an interest rate announcement at 2pm today.
Virtually everyone expects the Fed to hold its main interest rate steady as it waits for clues about how conditions play out. The job market, for the moment at least, appears relatively stable after the economy closed last year doing well.
More attention will be on the forecasts the Fed will publish after the meeting, showing where officials expect interest rates, inflation and the economy to head in upcoming years. For now, traders are largely expecting the Fed to deliver two or three cuts to rates by the end of 2025.
In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across much of Europe and Asia. They have been largely doing better than the U.S. stock market this year, upending a yearslong trend and forcing questions about whether the end has arrived for what was called “U.S. exceptionalism.”
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.2%. Investors expect the Bank of Japan to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a monetary policy board meeting due to wrap up Wednesday.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.28% from 4.31% late Monday.
Earnings this week include: today - GSI, JLL lower, tonight - FIVE; Thursday – DRI, FDS, FDX, JBL, LEN, NKE, MU.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – February housing starts gained 11.2%, February import prices rose by 0.4% and 2% year over year, export prices gained 0.1% and 2.1% year over year, February industrial production rose 0.7% while capacity utilization came in at 768.2; today at 2pm – F.O.M.C interest rate decision at which they are expected to keep the rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. They will announce their latest update for Summary of Economic Projections which will be either two or now investors are looking for the possibility of three due to the current uncertainty going on in the markets; Thursday – weekly jobless claims and February L.E.I.
