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March 14, 2025
Dow: 41,335
S&P: 5660
Nasdaq: 17,652
10 YR T-Note: 4.32%
Bitcoin: 83,300
VIX: 22.55
Gold: $3,010
Crude Oil: 67.2
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The latest sell-off hit a new low Thursday after President Trump’s escalating trade war dragged the S&P 500 more than 10% below its record, which was set just last month.
This new “correction” sent the S&P’s first one in two years after Trump upped the stakes in his trade war by threatening huge taxes on European wines and alcohol. Not even a double-shot of good news on the U.S. economy could stop the bleeding.
The Dow ended with another disastrous loss of 537, down to 40,813 while the S&P collapsed by 78 to 5521 led by declines in most large technology issues plus the usual villains like financials and industrials. It was down by 689 at the lows.
The Nasdaq, which has been in a correction for a while now, was decimated to the tune of 345 to 17,303 led by the usuals such as AAPL which has now collapsed straight down by around 55 points, in addition to TSLA, which enjoyed a two-day reprieve in its long awful downtrend and is now lower by more than 50% once again despite it becoming the new poster-boy for sales on the ground of the White House. The index was also hurt by heavy selling in ADBE after its weak report.
The Russell 2000 sagged further with a 33 point collapse down to 1993 while the VIX did not do so badly with a gain up to 24.66 considering the extent of the awful declines.
The turbulence is a result of uncertainty about how much pain Trump will let the economy endure through tariffs and other policies in order to reshape the country and world as he wants. The president has said he wants manufacturing jobs back in the United States, along with a smaller U.S. government workforce and other fundamental changes.
Trump’s latest escalation came Thursday when he threatened 200% tariffs on Champagne and other European wines, unless the European Union rolls back a “nasty” tariff announced on U.S. whiskey. The European Union unveiled that move on Wednesday, in response to U.S. tariffs on European steel and aluminum.
U.S. households and businesses have already reported drops in confidence because of all the uncertainty about which tariffs will stick from Trump’s barrage of on -again, off -again announcements. That has raised fears about a pullback in spending that could sap energy from the economy. Some U.S. businesses say they have already begun to see a change in their customers’ behavior because of the uncertainty.
One danger is that growth stagnates but inflation stays high because of tariffs. Few tools are available in Washington to fix what’s called “stagflation”, which puts the Fed in a real dilemma as to what its future path should be ahead of its meeting next Wednesday, so we shall see how it handles this one.
Two economic reports did show some improvement as the February P.P.I. also came in lower similar to the C.P.I. from the day before as it showed that the numbers were unchanged from the prior month and actually down by 0.1% excluding food and energy. Year over year they were ahead by 3.2% and 3.4% respectively.
In addition, weekly jobless claims slipped a bit to 220K, down by 2K from the prior week. This is the latest sign that the job market remains relatively solid overall. If that can continue, it could allow U.S. consumers to keep spending, which would be helpful for the economy.
AEO fell after the retailer said “less robust demand and colder weather” have held back its performance recently. It forecasted a dip in revenue for the upcoming year, though it also delivered a stronger profit report for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
Of all strange upside events was none other than INTC, which jumped 15% after naming former board member and semiconductor industry veteran Lip-Bu Tan as its CEO. Tan, 65, will take over the daunting job next week, more than three months after its previous CEO abruptly retired amid a deepening downturn at the once-dominant chipmaker.
In the bond market, Treasury yields lost an early gain to sink lower. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.27% from 4.32%. The yield has been mostly dropping since January, when it was approaching 4.80%, as traders and economists have ratcheted back their expectations for U.S. economic growth.
While few are predicting a recession, particularly with the job market remaining relatively solid, recent reports have shown a souring of confidence among U.S. consumers and companies.
Earnings reports this week will see: yesterday - ADBE, PATH, S, AEO lower and DG higher; today – ULTA and DOCU higher.
Economic reports will importantly show: yesterday - February PPI also came in a bit lower at unchanged and down -.01 ex-food and energy. Year over year it was 3.2% higher and 3.4% year over year for the latter, weekly jobless claims slipped a bit to 220,000; today - March mid-month U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in lower than expected at 57.9 but do far the market is ignoring it.
