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March 13, 2025
Dow: 41,275
S&P: 5572
Nasdaq: 17,526
10-YR T-Note: 4.33%
Bitcoin: 82,482
VIX: 24.2
Gold: $2,955
Crude Oil: $67.4
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
U.S. stock indexes rose Wednesday after investors got some relief from an encouraging inflation update, but even on a rare up day, the President’s trade wat still made for very volatile trading, some of it to the downside.
The Dow fell 83 points to 41,350 after giving up an early 288 point gain and another large loss of 423. And in a continuing pattern from the day before, all of the consumer staples that people could not wait to buy last week because these were the so-called “safety trades” against the overly high technology issues, came down once again, This included AMGN, KO, HON, JNJ, MCD, MRK, PG plus PEP.
The S&P finally ended higher by a volatile 27 points to 5590 after having given up an early gain of 70 and a downside loss of 26 as most of the large technology issues did well while AAPL continued to crater while a “top-ranked” analyst now said that he is lowering his price target from 270 down to 252.5 AFTER the stock has collapsed from 255 to 215 straight down. The index once again declined by 10% below its all-time high set last month.
The Nasdaq did the best of all with a 232 point gain as most of technology did well, highlighted by NVDA digging in its heels at the lower levels and pathetic TSLA gaining again after its 50% collapse recently and gained two days in a row for the first time in a month. GEV also did well in the AI area as well.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks eked out a 3 point gain to 2024 while the VIX finally got blasted down to 24.33.
The February C.P.I. came in better than expected with gains of 0.2% and 2.8% year over year, but even with such gains, more stocks in the S&P fell than rose, among the hardest hit were businesses that could feel pain due to Trump’s trade war, such as BFB and HDC.
U.S. bourbon and motorcycles are just two of the products the European Union is targeting with its own tariffs announced on U.S. products. The moves were in response to Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum that kicked in earlier in the day.
Canada also hit back with tariffs announced on U.S. tools, sports equipment and other products.
“We deeply regret this measure,” the European Union President said. “Tariffs are taxes. They are bad for business, and worse for consumers.”
The question hanging over the markets is how much pain that Trump will let the economy endure through tariffs and other policies. He has said that he wants manufacturing jobs back in the United States, along with a smaller U.S. government workforce, more deportations and other things.
Even if Trump ultimately goes with milder tariffs, damage could still be done. The dizzying barrage of on again and off again announcements on tariffs has already begun hurting confidence among U.S. consumers and businesses by ramping up uncertainty. That could cause households and businesses to pull back on spending, which would hurt the economy.
On Tuesday, for example, Trump said he would double tariffs announced on Canadian steel and aluminum, only to walk it back later in the day after a Canadian province pledged to drop a retaliatory measure that had incensed Trump.
Several U.S. businesses have said they’ve already begun seeing a change in behavior among their customers as DAL sank 3% to compound its drop of 7.3% from the prior day, when the carrier said it is seeing demand weaken for close-in bookings for its flights.
CASY, an Iowa-based company that runs nearly 2,900 convenience stores in 20 states, offered some encouragement. It reported stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected thanks in part to strength for sales of hot sandwiches and fuel. It also kept steady its forecast for upcoming revenue this year.
In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across much of Europe following mixed sessions in Asia.
In the bond market, Treasury yields edged up to regain more of their losses from recent months sparked by worries about the U.S. economy’s strength. The 10-year Treasury rose to 4.31% from 4.28% late Tuesday and from 4.16% at the start of last week.
Wednesday’s better-than-expected inflation report gave some encouragement when worries are high that Trump’s tariffs could drive prices even higher for U.S. households after U.S. importers pass on the costs to their customers.
Worries had been rising about a worst-case scenario for the economy and for the Fed, where economic growth stagnates but inflation remains high. The Fed has no good tool to fix such “stagflation” because lower interest rates can push inflation higher.
Earnings reports this week will see: yesterday - CASY higher and DAL lower; today - ADBE, PATH, S lower and DG higher; tonight - DOCU,ULTA.
Economic reports will importantly show: yesterday – February CPI came in at a monthly gain of 0.2% and 2.8% year over year, both a little lower than expected; today – February PPI also came in a bit lower at unchanged and down -.01 ex-food and energy. Year over year it was 3.2% higher and 3.4% year over year for the latter, weekly jobless claims slipped a bit to 220,000; Friday – March mid-month U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
