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March 12, 2025
Dow: 41,220
S&P: 5582
Nasdaq: 17,571
10-YR T-Note: 4.32%
Bitcoin: 83,539
VIX: 25.48
Gold: 2,913
Crude Oil: 66.47
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market fell further Tuesday following the President’s latest escalation of the trade war, briefly pulling the S&P 10% below its record set last month. And like it’s been for most of the past few weeks, the market’s slide on Tuesday was erratic and dizzying.
The S&P 500 fell by 42 to 5572, but only after careening between a modest gain of 22 and a tumble to an 86 point loss. It finished 9.3% below its all-time high after flirting with the 10% threshold, known as a “correction.”
The Dow collapsed by 478 to 41, 433 as some of the old-time consumer staples that people fell in love with recently got blasted back such as AMGN, AXP, JPM, HD, IBM, DIS, MCD, PG and V.
The Nasdaq did “better” with only a 32 point decline as such forgotten names such as NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, META, MSTR, AVGO and TSLA, after its more than 50% destruction, finally put in a higher day for a change. It also had the nerve to be ahead by 219 in the mid-afternoon and ended in correction territory with a 12% decline from its highs.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks had the nerve to end with a nominal 5 point gain to 2023 and the VIX finally cooled off from its strong upside run to end at 26.92.
Such head-spinning moves are becoming routine in what’s been a scary ride for investors as Trump tries to remake the country and world through tariffs and other policies. Stocks have been mostly lower on uncertainty about how much pain Trump is willing for the economy to endure in order to get what he wants.
Stocks began tumbling in the morning after Trump said he would double planned tariff increases on steel and aluminum coming from Canada. The president said it was a response to moves a Canadian province made after Trump began threatening tariffs on one of the United States’ most important trading partners.
Trump has acknowledged the economy could feel some “disturbance” because of the tariffs he’s pushing. Asked on Tuesday just how much pain Trump would be willing for the economy and stock market to take, the White House press secretary declined to give an exact answer. But she said earlier in the press briefing that “the president will look out for Wall Street and for Main Street.”
For his part, Trump said earlier on social media, “The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear.”
Stocks pared their losses later in the day, even briefly eliminating them altogether, after Ontario’s premier said he had agreed to remove the surcharge on electricity that had enraged Trump so much. Trump would afterward say that he would “probably” return the steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada to 25%.
After that brief perk higher, though, stocks would go on to slide again into the end of trading.
Tuesday’s swings followed more warning signals about the economy as Trump’s on -and- off again rollout of tariffs creates confusion and pessimism for households and businesses.
Such tariffs can hurt the economy directly by raising prices for U.S. consumers and messing up global trade. But even if they end up being milder than feared, all the whipsaw moves could create so much uncertainty that companies and consumers freeze, which would sap energy from the economy.
One stock, DAL, lost 7% after it said it is already seeing a change in confidence among customers, which is affecting demand for close-in bookings for its flights. That pushed the airline to roughly halve its forecast for revenue growth in the first three months of 2025, down to a range of 3% to 4% from a range of 7% to 9%.
LUV also cut its forecast for an important underlying revenue trend, and it pointed specifically to less government travel, among other reasons, including wildfires in California and “softness in bookings and demand trends as the macro environment has weakened.”
Its stock nevertheless rallied after the airline said it would soon begin charging some passengers to check bags, among other announcements.
ORCL dropped 3% after the technology giant reported profit and revenue for the latest quarter that fell short of analysts’ expectations.
Helping to keep the market in check were several Big Tech stocks, which steadied a bit after getting walloped in recent months. TSLA finally rose after Trump said he would buy this car in a show of support for “Elon’s ‘baby.’”
TSLA’s sales and brand have been under pressure as Musk has led efforts in Washington to cut spending by the federal government and the stock is down 43% for the young year so far.
Other Big Tech superstars, which had led the market to record after record in recent years, also held a bit firmer. NVDA as mentioned above gained to trim its loss for the year so far to 19%. It has struggled as the market’s sell-off has particularly hit stocks seen as getting too expensive in the frenzy around AI technology.
Stocks rose 0.4% in Shanghai and were nearly unchanged in Hong Kong as China’s annual national congress wrapped up its annual session with some measures to help boost the slowing economy.
In the bond market, Treasury yields clawed back some of their tumbles in recent months. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.28% from 4.22% late Monday. In January, it was nearing 4.80%, before it began sinking on worries about the U.S. economy.
The January JOLTS report released Tuesday morning showed U.S. employers were advertising 7.7 million job openings at the end of January, just as economists expected. It is the latest signal that the U.S. job market remains relatively solid overall, for now at least, after the economy closed last year doing well.
Earnings reports this week will see: yesterday - MTN higher and ASAN,ORCL, DKS, KSS, DAL and Dow component VZ lower; today – CASY higher; tonight - ADBE, IRT; Thursday – DOCU, DG, ULTA
Economic reports will importantly show: yesterday – January JOLTS report came in at 7.7 million; today – February CPI came in at a monthly gain of 0.2% and 2.8% year over year, both a little lower than expected; Thursday – February PPI; Friday – March mid-month U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
