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July 30, 2024
DOW: 40,586.86
S&P: 5,428.29
Nasdaq: 17,137.58
10YR T-Note: 4.16%
Bitcoin: 66,019.53
VIX: 17.6
Gold: $2,383.5
Crude Oil: $74.7
Prices Current as of 11:39 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Yesterday’s results to start what could be a volatile week with all of the events that are going to take place resulted in a mixed finish with the Dow lower by 49 points to 40,539 led by declines in the stocks that usually lead it on the way higher, namely AMGN, CAT, CRM and UNH while MCD made a large gain despite coming up short on both earnings and revenue, go figure. It sort of went back and forth all session long in somewhat subdued fashion. This was after it had been higher for four straight weeks.
The S&P continued building on Friday’s gains with a closing advance of 4 up to 5463 led by gains for a change in AMZN, AAPL, both ahead of their earnings on Thursday, MSFT and TSLA, which got slaughtered last week on a poor earnings report but yesterday everyone loved it all of a sudden. It had been down for two straight weeks for the first time since April.
The Nasdaq, also lower for two straight weeks for the first time since April as well, managed to eke out a small gain of 12 up to 17,370 led by the aforementioned issues as well plus a nice advance in ON.
And the beloved Russell 2000 Index of small stocks, which had been higher for three straight weeks with a 10.4% gain, also dropped with a loss of 24 to 2235.
The VIX actually had the nerve to gain up to 16.6 ahead of all the big events this week and we shall see how this plays out.
They helped offset slides for oil-and-gas companies, which were some of the heaviest weights on the market after the price of oil sank back toward where it was two months ago.
What has helped support the U.S. stock market even as those Big Tech behemoths weakened has been strength from other areas that had been beaten down by high interest rates meant to get inflation under control. Smaller stocks in particular soared on expectations that slowing inflation will get the Federal Reserve to soon begin cutting interest rates.
That pattern unwound a bit on Monday, as the majority of Big Tech stocks rose while the smaller stocks in the Russell 2000 index slumped. But the Russell 2000 is still up by a market-leading 9.2% for the month so far. Treasury yields held relatively steady in the bond market, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.17% from 4.19% late Friday. It was as high as 4.70% in April.
In stock markets abroad, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index jumped 2.1%. Its central bank will also announce a decision on interest rates this week. Expectations are for it to raise rates.
Indexes rose 1.3% in Hong Kong and were roughly flat in Shanghai after official data on Saturday showed industrial profits rose 3.5% in the first half of 2024 from a year earlier. That was a glimmer of positive news following recent cuts to interest rates and other piecemeal stimulus that followed a top-level policy meeting of the ruling Communist Party earlier this month.
The FTSE 100 edged up by 0.1% in London ahead of a meeting for the Bank of England this week, where some investors expect to see a cut in interest rates.
Earnings reports are important this week as four of the Mag Seven report and considering how soft they have been lately, if they do not do better on this, then there are going to be real problems with them going forward, and their lineup is as follows: yesterday – Dow component MCD plus ON higher; today – LSCC, CHK lower plus Dow components PG and MRK; PYPL, BLUE, PFE, SWK higher; tonight – Dow component MSFT plus AMD, SBUX; Wednesday – META; Thursday – AAPL and AMZN. In addition, there are tons of others which we will list on a day to day basis, such as: today – Dow component MCD higher plus ON and FFIV tonight.
Economic reports will have: Tuesday – July Consumer Confidence rose to 100.3, June JOLTS jobs opening report rose to 8.18 million, CaseShiller May Home Price Index rose to a record high with only a 0.3% gain; Wednesday – results of the latest Fed interest rate meeting; Thursday – June construction spending, weekly jobless claims; Friday – June jobs report for which the estimate is 180K versus last month’s 206K, June factory orders.
