.png)
July 24, 2024
DOW: 39,983.68
S&P: 5,463.27
Nasdaq: 19,230.72
10YR T-Note: 4.22%
Bitcoin: 66,226.80
VIX: 16.71
Gold: $2427.95 Crude Oil: $77.70
Prices Current as of 11:30 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The three major indices could not hold onto decent mid-day gains yesterday and slipped as the session came to an end, with all three of them falling into negative territory at the close.
For instance, the Dow turned an advance of 110 around 12 noon into a closing loss of 57 down to 40,358 led by selling in AMGN, CAT, CVX, DIS, HD, MCD and UNH.
The S&P followed the same pattern, with a 21 point gain turning into a closing decline of 8 down to 5555 as some of the large-cap technology leaders faltered and energy and materials stocks also faltered.
The Nasdaq was ahead by 121 at the mid-day high and also ended down by 10 to 17,997 as several of the large technology stocks such as NVDA and TSLA fell as the session came to an end.
Only the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks was able to hold its own and ended higher by 22 to 2243 so there must have been that moving out of the larger issues into the smaller ones near the close. The hope here is that eventual cuts to interest rates should help these members should do better.
The VIX continued to retreat lower at 14.72 even as most overall stocks declined to it has been staying in that higher range lately.
Earnings results continued to dominate market headlines and expectations are high, and analysts are forecasting the strongest profit growth for S&P companies broadly since late 2021, according to FactSet.
UPS was one of the heaviest weights on the S&P as it collapsed by 12% after delivering weaker profit and revenue for the spring than analysts expected. But CEO Carol Tomé said the company’s U.S. business delivered more packages than a year earlier, its first such growth in nine quarters, and called it a “significant turning point for our company.”
CMCSA dropped after reporting revenue that fell short of expectations. Its biggest declines came from lower attendance at its U.S. theme parks and from its studios business, which didn’t have as big hits as last year’s “The Super Mario Bros.” and “Fast X” movies.
Helping to offset those losses was GE, which jumped after beating analysts’ forecasts for profit and raising its forecast for earnings over the full year.
ZION jumped after reporting better profit for the latest quarter than expected. It and stocks of other regional banks continue to recover from the industry’s mini-crisis that began in March 2023, triggered by the punishing effects of high interest rates.
SHW is another company that felt the pain of high interest rates meant to get inflation under control. It climbed 7% after delivering stronger profit for the latest quarter than expected. It said it is seeing growth in demand for paint from new residential customers, and it expects the momentum to continue through the year.
That is despite high mortgage rates having chilled the housing industry. A report on Tuesday showed that June existing home sales fell by 5.4%, which was worse than expected. Sales slowed in part because prices for previously occupied homes are at the highest ever recorded, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Treasury yields have sunk since the spring on expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower rates in September, and they remain below their heights reached in April. The yield on the 10-year Treasury held steady at 4.25%, where it was in late Monday trading. It had gotten as high as around 4.7% in April. The fact that smaller stocks have done better lately is a sharp turnaround, as they lagged badly behind their bigger rivals, headlined by a small group known as the “Magnificent Seven,” for a while. Analysts see it as an encouraging signal when more stocks are participating in a rising market, rather than just a few dominant elites.
Companies’ profits will broadly need to hit a high bar of expectations in order to keep the U.S. stock market near its records, particularly as critics say stocks don’t look cheap after rising so much. What CEOs say about upcoming profits will also be key as investors watch for any hints that companies have less ability to keep their prices high.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed across Asia and Europe.
Chinese markets were some of the weakest, and stocks fell 0.9% in Hong Kong and 1.6% in Shanghai. Analysts described moves by China’s central bank to cut two key interest rates on Monday as not particularly inspiring.
Earnings this week will see (one day at a time due to so many): yesterday - NUE, MCO, CMCSA, NXP, GM, UPS and Dow component V lower and CLF higher plus Dow component KO and LMT, MCO, SHW, DHR, PM; today – TSLA, GOOG, MSCI, BSX, TMO and Dow component V lower and TXN, MAT, STX, T, GD higher; tonight – Dow component IBM plus CMG, F, NOW.
Economic reports will have: today – June existing home sales fell by 5.4%, June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -17 which is the lowest since 2020; today – June new home sales slipped 0.2% Thursday – weekly jobless claims, June durable goods orders, first look at 2Q G.D.P.; Friday – July personal income and spending, July final U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey and the always important June P.C.E. inflation report.
