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July 15, 2024
DOW: 40,303.42
S&P: 5643.32
Nasdaq: 18,486.21
10YR T-Note: 4.22%
Bitcoin: 63146
VIX: 13.05
Gold: $2439.2 Crude Oil: $81.95
Prices Current as of 11:50 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After Thursday’s astounding reversal where the beaten-down Russell 2000 Index of small stocks reversed by the most ever to the upside against the S&P, things got back to a more normal situation to end the week on Friday as all four major indices ended higher and touched intraday records for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq before falling off of those records near the close.
Nonetheless, it was a stellar week for all of the indices and completed what I had said was that the first two weeks of July are the best for the market going all the way back to 1928.
The Dow ended with a 247 point gain to 40,000 even as it surpassed intraday and was led by U.S. stocks such as AMGN, CAT, HD, IBM and UNH.
The S&P got as high as a record 5655 before coming off of those best ever levels near the close but still ended with a 30 point advance to 5625, led once again by gains in AAPL, NVDA, TSLA and other large members of the Dow as listed above. It was the fifth winning week out of the past six.
The Nasdaq also traded higher than it has ever been up to 18,556 before ending 115 up to 18,398 while the newly reborn Russell 2000 Index gained another 23 up to 2148 which was its highest in eight months led by gains in some of the smaller banks. It was the sixth straight higher week for this one.
And the VIX eased back as it should on a nicely higher day in equities and it ended at 12.46 as it appears stuck at the lower level as the market continues to grind higher.
BNY added 5% for one of the market’s bigger gains after it reported better profit for the spring than analysts expected. NVDA and the other big tech leaders also rebounded after that large lower day on Thursday, which interrupted their rocket a frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology.
They helped offset a drop for WFC which sank 6% even though the San Francisco-based bank reported stronger profit than analysts expected. It said a key underlying measure of profit fell from a year ago and that its net interest income could remain in the bottom half of the range it had forecast for the full year.
In the bond market, which has been strong this week with lower yields, sort of yo-yoed after the release of the latest update on inflation. It said prices rose more at the wholesale level last month than economists expected, which was a letdown after data the data for C.P.I. was better than expected.
But after a couple initial swings, Treasury yields calmed and remained lower than they were late Thursday.
Some of the acceleration in Friday’s data could be the result of higher profit margins for businesses, which can swing sharply and some analysts called irrelevant to the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve.
Also helping to keep yields anchored was a report suggesting U.S. households aren’t as fearful about inflation staying so high in the future. Over the coming year, U.S. consumers are forecasting inflation of 2.9%, according to preliminary June data from the University of Michigan.
It was the second straight month such expectations have eased. That helps calm worries about a potential spiral where expectations for high inflation could drive U.S. consumers toward behavior that would push inflation even higher. That in turn could give the Federal Reserve more of the evidence of slowing inflation that it says it needs to start to cut its main interest rate, which is at its highest level in more than two decades.
After climbing as high as 4.23% following the wholesale inflation report’s release, the 10-year Treasury yield settled back down to 4.18% from 4.21% late Thursday. It is down from 4.70% in April as hopes have risen that inflation is slowing enough momentum to convince the Fed to cut short-term rates.
Traders are banking on a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will start easing rates in September, according to data from CME Group. Fed officials, though, have been saying they want to see “more good data” on inflation before making a move.
Of course, traders have a long history of being premature about predicting rate cuts. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Friday that inflation and interest rates may stay higher than the market expects because of the U.S. government’s growing debt and other factors.
In stock markets abroad, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gave back some of its recent record-breaking run and fell 2.4%, though it’s still up more than 23% for the year so far.
Indexes were mixed across the rest of Asia and higher in much of Europe.
The bulk of the second-quarter earnings season starts this week and the lineup is too long so we will list them two days at a time and today we have – BLK and GS higher; Tuesday – BAC, MS, UNH.
Economic reports will see: Tuesday – June retail sales, June import and export prices; Wednesday – June housing starts, June industrial production and capacity utilization; Thursday – weekly jobless claims June L.E.I., July Philadelphia Fed Economic Outlook.
