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July 11, 2024
DOW: 39,815.47
S&P: 5,614.43
Nasdaq: 18,475.21
10YR T-Note: 4.18%
Bitcoin: 57,884.88
VIX: 12.74
Gold: $2415.8 Crude Oil: $82.41
Prices Current as of 10:54 am
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Continuing its historic run, the market hit a four-bagger yesterday as not only did the S&P and Nasdaq leap to new all-time highs, but this time the lagging Dow and Russell 2000 decided to join the upside party.
And once again, after a hesitant start, the Dow leapt to a huge gain of 429 up to 39,721 led by gains in AAPL to a new high itself for its 11th straight advance, in addition to AMGN, HD, GS, MSFT and UNH.
The S&P gained for the seventh day in a row led by AAPL, MSFT and other large technology stocks, including AVGO, META and so on and once again the action so far this month proves what I said in that history shows that the first two weeks of July are the best ones of the year for the market going all the way back to 1928. And now what are the market experts who called for the S&P going to do now that it reached their almost universal target of 5600 as I am certain that we are going to hear additional upgrades to new prices targets in the old “follow the market higher” scenario.
Not to be left behind, the Nasdaq really took off with a 2154 upside moonshot to 18,647 led by the issues mentioned above, plus TSLA which has now advanced for 11 straight days as well.
And how about the Russell 2000 which gained for a change by 22 points to 2051 led by good showings in some of the smaller bank issues.
And in a strange co-incidence, take a look at the VIX, which on one of the strongest days of the year in the market, it had the nerve to rally up to 12.85 and it gained ground as did the market late in the session, so someone is going to be right today after the release of the June C.P.I. report as they both cannot go in the same direction forever.
TSM makes the chips for NVDA and others that have been driving the rush into artificial-intelligence technology. The promise of big profits in the future from AI has sent the latter in particular to breathtaking heights over the last year, and its gain yesterday brought its advance for the year so far to 172.5%. It was again the strongest single force pushing the S&P upward.
AMD was another major force behind the stock market’s leap, and it jumped 4% after announcing a $665 million deal to buy Silo AI, a European AI lab.
The frenzy around AI has been a major reason the U.S. stock market has climbed to records despite a slowdown in the economy’s growth and a tightening squeeze on lower-income households. So have hopes that inflation is slowing enough for the Federal Reserve to deliver much-sought cuts to interest rates later this year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell returned to Capitol Hill to give testimony about interest rates, where he echoed many of his comments from the day before. He said he was “not sending any signals” about when cuts to rates could arrive, but he pointed out the downsides of being too late on them.
“We’re looking at both sides” of the risks involved in moving its main interest rate, which has been sitting at its highest level in more than two decades, Powell said. Cutting rates too early could allow inflation to reaccelerate, while waiting too long could allow the economy’s slowdown to gather into a recession.
Many investors are expecting the Fed to begin cutting its main interest rate in September, but traders have a long history of being premature in their calls. Powell gave a nod to recent reports that have shown improvement in inflation following a discouraging start of the year, but he said again the Fed doesn’t have enough confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its goal of 2%.
“More good data would strengthen our confidence” and clear the way for a cut, Powell said.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 4.28% from 4.30% late Tuesday and from 4.70% since April. The move since the spring is a significant one for the bond market and offers support for stock prices.
The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more on expectations for Fed action, held steady at 4.62%, where it was late Tuesday.
SGH, a technology company with computing, memory and LED businesses, rose 26% after it reported stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
On the losing end was LZ, which fell 25% as it said that its C.E.O. is leaving the company and resigning from its board. The company also cut its forecast for revenue over the full year.
In stock markets abroad, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose to close at its own record. It’s jumped 25% so far this year, even more than the U.S. stock market, as AI enthusiasm has pushed up its technology stocks. Its exporters are also benefiting from the yen’s falling value against the dollar, which can boost their profits.
Second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week with the following: today – WDFN higher and CAG, DAL, PEP lower; Friday – C, FAST, JPM, WFC, BNY.
Economic reports will see: Thursday – June C.P.I. came in lower than expected at -0.1% and 0.1% excluding food and energy and the year over year gain was 3% and this should ease the way for a September rate cut, weekly jobless claims fell by 17K to 222K; Friday – June P.P.I., preliminary U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
