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January 7, 2025
DOW: 42667.47
S&P: 5936.92
Nasdaq: 19595.89
10YR T-Note: 4.69%
Bitcoin: 97751.1
VIX: 17.48
Gold: $2666.6
Crude Oil: $73.93
Prices Current as of 11:50 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Rising technology stocks yesterday salvaged out a winning session, but all of the major indices did suffer large intraday declines from their record mid-day highs.
For instance, the Dow had jumped to a 383 point gain at 12noon, which then reversed sharply downward to a loss of as much as 120, a 500 point collapse from its high, to finally limp to a closing loss of 25. And surprise, surprise, the losers were once again such weak names as AMGN, HON, MCD, NKE and PG, which is really becoming a downside disaster.
The S&P lost more than half of its best intraday level of 79 points to end with a closing advance of 33 to 5975 with gains from many large technology members helping, with NVDA making a new high in the process, and AVGO, AMZN, META and even AAPL managed to make a gain, although well off of its best level. It was the second straight gain for the index after five straight losses, its longest losing streak since April.
The Nasdaq did the same things, namely close well off of its best level of 387 to finish better by 243 to 19,864 also led by the big tech guys while the Russell 2000 went slightly lower to 2266, down by 2 points.
The VIX finally ended slightly lower to 16.04 as it remained higher during the day on a sign of not being that optimistic but is reflecting the extended level of volatility that the market does exhibit almost daily.
Slightly more stocks fell in the S&P fell rather than rose amid the mixed trading. Tech companies were the clear leaders, including those swept up in the frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology. As mentioned, NVDA made a new record high to top its record set in November ahead of a speech by CEO Jensen Huang at a convention in Las Vegas after trading ended for the day. The stock is continuing to trade higher into further record territory before the opening today after they introduced new desktop and laptop chips.
MSFT rose after the company said late Friday it is on track to invest about $80 billion to build out AI-enabled datacenters to train AI models this fiscal year. They said that AI is the biggest opportunity “to harness new technology to invigorate the nation’s economy” since the invention of electricity.
UBER continued to sneak a little higher from 60 after the ride-hailing app said it would accelerate $1.5 billion in purchases of its own stock, part of a previously announced $7 billion buyback program. They said that it is making the move as its stock price looks cheap compared with the strength of its business.
In the old economy, X finally rose after it and Japan’s Nippon Steel filed a federal lawsuit challenging President Biden’s decision to block a proposed nearly $15 billion deal for Nippon to buy its Pittsburgh-based rival.
The suit, filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, alleges that it was a political decision and violated the companies’ due process. Japanese leaders have also said there is scant evidence that the merger would create a security concern for the U.S.
Those winners helped offset more drops for owners of real estate, which have struggled recently amid rising longer-term interest rates. Real-estate stocks fell for the biggest loss among the 11 sectors that make up the index.
So far, the economy has remained remarkably resilient despite high interest rates the Fed instituted in recent years to stifle inflation. A report on Monday said a measure of activity for services businesses hit its highest level in nearly three years.
“Business activity in the vast services economy surged higher in the closing month of 2024 on fuller order books and rising optimism about prospects for the year ahead,” according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The Fed has been trying to give the economy an easier time, and it began cutting interest rates in September after inflation pulled nearly all the way down to its 2% target. But getting the last percentage point of improvement from inflation is proving more difficult, as worries are also rising that tariffs and other policies coming from the new President could put upward pressure on inflation.
Earnings this week begin slightly for the 4Q with early-birds starting out: tonight - CALM; Thursday, when the market is closed for the President Carter memorial – KBH, STZ, WDFC, WBA; Friday – DAL.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – November factory orders fell by 0.4% on weakness in aircraft; today - November JOLTS report, November trade balance widened to $78. 25 billion; Wednesday - the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its last policy meeting, where it cut its main interest rate for a third straight time but hinted fewer reductions may arrive in 2025; Friday – weekly jobless claims, December non-farms payroll report which is expected to show 160,000 and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%, January preliminary U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
