.png)
January 14, 2025
DOW: 42444.21
S&P: 5859.98
Nasdaq: 19207.37
10YR T-Note: 4.8%
Bitcoin: 96549.38
VIX: 18.67
Gold:2674.50
Crude Oil:78.14
Prices Current as of 10 :11 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In what could have been a temporarily bottom from a very oversold market, the indexes all rallied back from their worst levels to end mixed to higher.
The hero was the Dow, which turned an early morning decline of 93 into a final gain of 358 to 42,297. It was led on the upside by gains in recently beaten-down items like AMGB, CAT, SHW in addition to JPM and UNH, both of whom report later this week.
The S&P made a miraculous late in the session close to gain 9 points to 5836 after being down by 54 to 5773, which is considered a near-term support level. The Nasdaq came off of its worst level from being down by a large 329 to end at 73 points down to 19,088 with some late support from TSLA, ADBE and AMD.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks turned a 31 point early decline into a closing advance of 5 to 2194 while the VIX really did a final intraday downside turnaround from an early gain up to 22.04 into a closing loss down to 19.19.
Stocks have been under pressure the last month, and the S&P is coming off its fourth losing week in the last five as traders have cut expectations for how much relief the Federal Reserve may deliver this year through lower interest rates.
Such cuts would give the economy a boost, and the U.S. stock market ran to repeated records last year on the assumption that more are coming after the Fed began lowering rates in September. But inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target, and recent reports have suggested that a still-solid economy doesn’t need much help. Questions are growing about whether the Fed will deliver even a single cut in 2025.
MRNA tumbled 17% for the largest loss in the S&P after giving a forecast for revenue this upcoming year that fell short of analysts’ expectations. The vaccine maker, which is seeing a slowdown in COVID-related sales, is accelerating a cost-cutting program. This one reached 450 in September 2021 at the panic over Covid and is now 35.
And that awful M fell by 8% after saying it will likely report revenue for the last three months of 2024 that is at or slightly below the low end of the forecasted range it had earlier given. This is a potentially discouraging signal about spending during the holiday season after strong spending by households has helped keep the economy out of a recession.
EIX fell another 12% as wildfires continue to burn in the territory of its Southern California Edison utility. The utility has said fire agencies are investigating whether its equipment was involved in the ignition of the Hurst fire.
On the winning side were oil-and-gas companies after the price of oil climbed. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude rose 2.9% to $78.82, while Brent crude climbed 1.6% to $81.01. The Biden administration said Friday that it is expanding sanctions against Russia’s energy industry.
Shares X gained after the Biden administration pushed back to June the deadline it imposed for the Pittsburgh-based company to unwind its proposed acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel.
ITGI soared 34% after Dow component JNJ said it would buy the biopharmaceutical company and its treatment for bipolar I and II depression for $132 per share in cash.
In the bond market, which has been dictating much of the action lately, Treasury yields ticked higher.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.78% from 4.76% late Friday. It has been climbing relentlessly over the last month, and it was below 3.65% just in September.
The strong reports on the U.S. economy have helped push yields higher. So have worries that tariffs and other policies possibly coming from the new President could boost inflation along with economic growth.
As mentioned, this week is the start of the 4Q earnings season and is important to perhaps set the tone for what is coming; today – KBH higher and SIG lower; Wednesday – BLK, C, WFC and Dow components GS and JPM; Thursday – BAC, JBHT, MS and Dow component UNH; Friday – FAST, SLB and SST.
Economic reports will see: today – December PPI came in cooler than expected with a 0.2% month over month advance and unchanged for ex-food and energy; Wednesday – December CPI; Thursday – December retail sales, weekly jobless claims; Friday – December housing starts, December capacity utilization and industrial production.
