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January 10, 2025
DOW: 42,093
S&P: 5,837
Nasdaq: 19,137
10YR T-Note: 4.73%
Bitcoin: 93,287
VIX: 19.49
Gold: 2,726.70
Crude Oil:76.98
Prices Current as of 10 :26 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market ended mixed on Wednesday, but a little to the upside after a horrible day on Tuesday and a better one on Monday, but there was shakiness in the activity and potential hopes that today’s 8:30am monthly jobs report will not further deteriorate the recent overall weaker conditions, and the answer is that it did, and see below for details.
After bouncing around in both directions, the Dow made a bit of a very late comeback to end higher by 107 to 42,635 led by gains in three recent laggards such as UNH, SHW and MSFT.
The S&P gained 9 to 5918 with help from AAPL, MSFT and MRVL while the regular Nasdaq lost 10 to 19,478 but the NDX index came in better because of some minor gains in several large technology leaders.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks lost 10 to 2338 while the recently rising VIX actually had the nerve to ease back a bit to 17.70.
In the bond market, which has been a big focus lately, the moves were also more modest following the last month’s gain in yields.
The increased calm returned to the market after reports on the economy Wednesday weren’t as strong as Tuesday’s. That can help because it raises hopes that the Federal Reserve may keep cutting short-term interest rates.
Fed Governor Wallace said that he still expects the central bank to deliver more easing of rates in 2025, pushing back against recent speculation it may already be done after cutting three times since September.
Waller said he doesn’t expect the tariffs that might come under the new President to have a “significant or persistent effect” on inflation. And even though inflation has been a little positive lately, he still sees it trending downward over the long term.
“If the outlook evolves as I have described here, I will support continuing to cut our policy rate in 2025,” he said. “The pace of those cuts will depend on how much progress we make on inflation, while keeping the labor market from weakening.”
The yield on the two-year Treasury, which tends to closely track expectations for Fed action, fell immediately after Waller’s speech and the release of a couple economic reports. It eased to 4.27% from 4.29% late Tuesday.
The best hope is that the jobs report will show enough strength to keep worries of a recession stifled but not so much that it keeps the Fed from cutting rates. But unfortunately for stocks, the number came out very high at 256,000 which caused bond yields to jump with the 10-year up to 4.78% and this was the highest since November 2023. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% so a “good” report for workers has now turned into a negative one for stocks, go figure, and this is because of the higher bond yields, with the 30-year issue at 5%.
A separate report on Wednesday, meanwhile, said that 201,000 applied for jobless claims last week, fewer than expected. It was the latest signal that the job market remains relatively healthy.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.67% from 4.69%, but it topped 4.70% earlier in the morning and is well above the 4.15% level it was at roughly a month ago. It was below 3.65% in September.
Such increases in yields make it more expensive for companies to borrow, and smaller companies can feel particular pain because of the need for many to borrow to grow, which is why the Russell 2000 Index fell again.
On the losing end was EIX, which tumbled by 10% as massive wildfires burn in the Los Angeles area. The company’s Southern California Edison utility said Wednesday it shut off power to nearly 120,000 customers in six counties over safety concerns due to high winds and the risk of wildfires.
Really taking large hits were quantum computing stocks like RGTI, IONG, QBUT, QBTS and others on comments made by the C.E.O. of NVDA that they are not ready to take the lead in this area.
On the winning end was EBAY, which gained 10% due to its beginning of a collaboration with META where a pilot lot of select eBay listings will appear on Facebook Marketplace in the United States, Germany, and France.
CALM gained after the egg producer reported stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It said that it sold more dozens of eggs thanks in part to strong demand from the seasonal boost it gets leading into Thanksgiving. Egg prices rose late last year as a lingering outbreak of bird flu coincided with the high demand of the holiday baking season.
Earnings this week begin slightly for the 4Q with early-birds starting out: today – STZ, WBA and DAL higher.
Economic reports will see: today - December non-farms payroll report, and see above for the details; January preliminary U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
