.png)
February 7, 2025
DOW: 44,839.06
S&P: 6096.49
Nasdaq: 19852.17
10YR T-Note: 4.49%
Bitcoin: 99760
VIX: 14.86
Gold: $2876.12
Crude Oil: $71.19
Prices Current as of 10:02 AM
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market ended mixed to higher as a combination of good and bad earnings eventually got the S&P and Nasdaq to end higher while large declines in some major stocks ended with the Dow lower.
The latter ended down by 125 to 44,747 led by large declines in HON on earnings, in addition to AMGN which gave back some of its gains from the day before, in addition to CRM, UNH and a surprisingly large selloff in IBM, which had done so well after its report a couple of weeks ago.
The S&P gained 22 to 6033 led by the financials and some large technology stocks ahead of the widely anticipated earnings from AMZN. In addition, the hotels and travel stocks did better after HLT rose to an all-time on its report. Fashion and cigarette stocks also did well on the backs of all-time highs in RL and TPR and a good report from PM.
The Nasdaq gained 100 points to 19,791 on those large tech gains in addition to COST, which has been making new highs on an almost daily basis, in addition to META which has now advanced for 14 straight days.
For some strange reason, after nice gains heading into the close, at 2pm the market went into a nose-dive as these two indices actually had the nerve to collapse into negative territory before suddenly resuming their uptrends once again going into the close. And how do you like the people or institutions who sold into that mini-collapse at the lows and then saw everything shoot right back up again, and this is what is called investing is about?
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks could not get it together and ended down 9 to 2307 and the VIX dropped again to 15.5 as it has been going in the opposite direction from the equity indices this week, which is how it should work.
TPR, the company behind the Coach and Kate Spade brands, helped lead the market and jumped 12%. It reported stronger profits for the latest quarter than analysts expected after attracting new, younger customers and also raised its forecast for revenue and profit growth this fiscal year.
PM, which sells Marlboro cigarettes and smokeless tobacco products around the world, was one of the strongest forces pushing upward on the S&P and rallied 11% after reporting a better profit than expected. It also gave financial forecasts that topped expectations, and analysts pointed in particular to strength for its Zyn nicotine pouches.
They helped offset a large drop for F, which fell even though the automaker delivered a stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Investors focused instead on their financial forecasts for 2025, which the company said incorporates “headwinds related to market factors.” This means questions about tariffs and it is sort of pathetic that a company that has been around for over 100 years can trade down into single digits.
The company gave a forecasted range for how much cash it will generate this year whose midpoint fell below analysts’ expectations, for example.
QCOM also kept indexes in check after falling on its report. Their products help power smartphones and other devices, and reported profit for the latest quarter that topped analysts’ forecasts, and analysts called the performance solid. But they also said expectations were high, and worries are rising about the wireless chip industry broadly.
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady after a report said that 219,000 workers filed for weekly jobless claims than expected.
The hope is that today’s 8:30am non-farm payrolls report will show a job market that remains solid enough to keep worries about a possible downturn at bay but not so strong that it pushes upward on inflation. The U.S. economy has remained much more solid than critics feared, but pressure is rising in part because of the threat of potential tariffs coming from the President.
After rocking financial markets around the world at the start of this week, worries about a potentially punishing global trade war have eased a bit after Trump gave 30-day reprieves for tariffs on both Mexico and Canada.
While discussing F’s earnings and financial forecasts, CEO Jim Farley said his company can manage a “few weeks” of tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports. But if they are protracted, they would have “a huge impact on our industry,” resulting in higher prices for customers, losses of U.S. jobs and the elimination of billions of dollars of industry profits.
On the brighter side, another company reliant on spending by consumers around the world, RL, gained 10% after reporting stronger profit and revenue than expected. Growth was particularly strong in China, where the company recently opened stores in Hong Kong and Beijing.
Another gainer was LLY, which rose after the drugmaker showed how demand for its hot-selling diabetes and obesity treatment are swelling its profits.
Dow component HON fell after it announced that it will split into three independent publicly-traded companies, following in the footsteps of other conglomerates such as GE.
The North Carolina company, one of the few U.S. conglomerates still in existence, expects to complete the spin-off of its automation and aerospace technologies businesses sometime in late 2026.
In stock markets abroad, London’s FTSE 100 jumped 1.2% after the Bank of England cut its main interest rate as it slashed its forecast for economic growth. The British economy has barely grown over the past six months, and the Bank of England halved its growth projection for the British economy this year to 0.75%.
Stock indexes also rose 1.5% in Paris, 1.4% in Hong Kong and 0.6% in Tokyo.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury held steady at 4.43%, where it was late Wednesday.
This week the 4Q earnings parade continues with the following lineup: yesterday - ARM, QCOM, RBLX, SWKS, BMY, Dow component HON lower and HSY, ALL, LLY, RL, HLT, PM, YUM, PTON higher; today - Dow component AMZN lower, in addition to ELF, SKX and BILL while TTWO, AFRM, EXPE, PINS are higher.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – weekly jobless claims rose a bit to 219,000; today – January nonfarm payrolls came om at 143,000and the unemployment rate dropped to 4%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% and the average workweek was 34.1 hours.
