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February 6, 2025
DOW: 44,874.88
S&P: 6070.49
Nasdaq: 21698.17
10YR T-Note: 4.43%
Bitcoin: 97860
VIX: 15.70
Gold: $2839.12
Crude Oil: $70.77
Prices Current as of 10:10 AM
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After a hesitant start, the market drifted higher yesterday as gains for most stocks overcame declines for GOOG and AMD and pushed the major indices upward again on better earnings for others and a new willingness to push things higher for the time being.
As a result, the Dow did better on a large earnings-related gain of 317 to 44,813 on the back of a large advance in AMGN on earnings in addition to GS, V, SHW and finally NVDA.
The S&P sort of lagged a bit with a 23 point gain to 6061 on some large tech gains, plus COST at another new high in addition to the financials again.
The Nasdaq also sort of lagged with a 38 point advance to 19,692 on some technology gains such as NVDA, AVGO, ASML, NFLX and META, which was ahead for the 13th straight time.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks again joined in the upside fun with a 26 point gain to 2316 on further strength in the financials while the VIX declined down to 15.77 on its traditional opposite leaning to equities Toymaker MAT made a large jump after blowing past analysts’ forecasts for profit in the latest quarter. Strength for its Hot Wheels brand helped make up for some softness for Barbie and other dolls. It also gave a forecast for profit this upcoming year that topped analysts’ expectations.
As noted above, Dow component AMGN rallied on stronger profit for the latest quarter than expected thanks in part to growth for its Repatha medicine, which can lower bad cholesterol and reduce the risk of heart attack.
They helped offset a drop for GOOG, which sank even though its parent company reported stronger profits than expected. Investors focused instead on slowing growth for its cloud business, whose revenue fell short of forecasts. They also noticed the $75 billion Alphabet is budgeting for investments this year, roughly $15 billion more than analysts expected, as it remains in the rush to develop AI technology.
AMD also fell even though the chip company edged past profit expectations for the latest quarter. While analysts called its results solid, they also asked why its C.E.O. did not give more detail about expectations for the performance of its AI offerings specifically.
Investors always want companies to deliver bigger profits, but the hopes may be even higher than usual given worries about how much faster stock prices have climbed than corporate profits, causing critics to call them expensive. Uncertainty is also hanging over the global economy because of the President’s tariff obsession.
After initially trouncing financial markets around the world around the world at the start of this week, worries about a potentially punishing global trade war have eased a bit after Trump gave 30-day reprieves on both Mexico and Canada, which bolstered traders’ hopes that Trump sees tariffs as merely a tool for negotiation, rather than as a long-term policy.
In the meantime, Trump has pressed ahead with tariffs on Chinese goods, and this could hit autos from the European Union, among other potential moves. That could drive a one-time boost to inflation, which could leave a widely followed measure of underlying inflation trends at 2.6% in December, above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
Yields in the bond market fell Wednesday after a report said growth for mining, finance and other U.S. services businesses was weaker last month than economists expected, as the ISM report came in at 54.1.
Businesses also “mentioned preparations or concerns related to potential U.S. government tariff actions; however, there was little mention of current business impacts as a result,” according to the report.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.42% from 4.52% late Tuesday.
Dow component DIS turned an early gain into a closing loss after delivering a better profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected, thanks in part to a strong performance for its “ Moana 2” movie.
MSTR, the company that has been raising cash with the express purpose of buying bitcoin, fell ahead of its earnings report, and fell further after the report later on. It also announced a name change to Strategy as part of a simplification of its brand to highlight its status as what it calls a “Bitcoin Treasury Company.” On the other hand, no matter what the names change has been, it has been a weak performer lately even as bitcoin itself made an all-time high last month.
This week the 4Q earnings parade continues with the following lineup: yesterday - Dow component AMGN in addition to NVO, MAT, EA, BSX, FI, ENPH, SCI higher while Dow component DIS in addition to AMD, GOOG, KKR, CMG, UBER, NYT, SWAP, ARES lower; today - ARM, QCOM, RBLX, SWKS, BMY, Dow component HON lower and HSY, ALL, LLY higher; tonight - Dow component AMZN and FTNT, RL.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – December trade deficit came in at the second lowest level ever at $98.4 billion, December ISM services sector rose to 54.1; today – weekly jobless claims rose a bit to 219,000; Friday – January nonfarm payrolls which are estimated at 165K and the unemployment rate of 4.1%.
