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February 5, 2025
DOW: 44,423.01
S&P: 6014.49
Nasdaq: 21462.17
10YR T-Note: 4.42%
Bitcoin: 97990
VIX: 16.99
Gold: $2873.12
Crude Oil: $71.64
Prices Current as of 10:12 AM
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Similar to the week before, after a weak Friday and a horrible Monday, the market put in a classic “Turnaround Tuesday” session to relieve some of the pressure inflicted on it during the prior two sessions.
As a result, the Dow added 134 to 44,556 helped by the technology issues for a change, as AAPL, AMZN, CRM and IBM led the way. The S&P did much better with a 43 point advance to 6037 led by the large technology issues and the Nasdaq did the best with a 262 point gain to 19,654.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks joined in the upside party with a 32 point gain to 2290 while the VIX took a dive down to 17.21 as equities finally gained.
A powerful gain from PLTR helped following a strong profit report which has been the favorite from the AI boom.
These gains calmed worries that the President’s tariffs could spark a trade war that would hurt economies around the world, including the United States.
The President on Monday agreed to delay his taxes on U.S. imports of Canadian and Mexican products for a month, with the announcement on Canada coming after trading closed for the day. That bolstered the hope that his tough talk on tariffs may be just that, talk. The hope is that he sees tariffs as a stick he can use in negotiations with trading partners rather than as a long-term policy.
That hope is built in part on traders’ belief that he would likely be turned off by the damage investors would take if a worst-case, long-term trade war were to occur. Trump has pointed in the past to the stock market as a real-time measure of his performance.
But a trade war is still possible, and some analysts say more swings may be coming because his threats should be taken both seriously and literally.
They say a big takeaway from all the tariff tumult is that the Trump administration is transactional, and nothing is settled until it is final.
Trump is pressing ahead with a 10% tax on U.S. companies importing things from China. And China retaliated on Tuesday by announcing its own tariffs on some U.S. products and an antitrust investigation into GOOG.
But the 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas products, as well as a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine cars imported from the United States won’t take effect until Monday. That leaves time for negotiations between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Some also see tariffs on China as separate from Trump’s moves against other trading partners. Trump may be more likely to keep tariffs on China for the longer term, as he did in his first term, because of a desire to separate the United States more from its geopolitical rival.
PLTR jumped 24% and was one of the strongest forces lifting the S&P after reporting a better profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The Denver company also issued forecasts for upcoming revenue that were ahead of analysts’ projections, as its C.E.O. said his company is at the “center of the AI revolution.”
Dow component MRK fell by 9% despite beating sales and profit forecasts for the latest quarter. It gave a forecast for upcoming revenue that fell short of analysts’ expectations, due partly to a pause in shipments of one of its top-selling products to China.
In the bond market, Treasury yields eased after the December J.O.L.T.S. report indicated the U.S. job market may be adding less upward pressure on inflation with 7.5 million positions added. This suggested a slowing but still healthy job market.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.51% from 4.56% late Monday. The two-year yield, which moves more closely with expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with short-term interest rates, eased to 4.21% from 4.25%.
This week the 4Q earnings parade continues with the following lineup: yesterday - PLTR, NXPI, SPOT higher and CLX, FN, PYPL, PEP, EL, PFE lower plus Dow component MRK; today – Dow component AMGN in addition to AMD, GOOG, KKR, CMG, UBER, NYT, Dow component DIS lower and ENPH, MAT, EA, BSX and SWAP higher plus ARM, QCOM, MSTR tonight; Thursday – Dow components AMZN and HON plus BMY, FTNT, LLY, RL, SKX, HSY.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – December factory orders were down by 0.9% and the December JOLTS report came in lower at 7.6 million; today – December trade deficit came in at the second lowest level ever at $98.4 billion, December ISM services sector; Thursday – weekly jobless claims; Friday – January nonfarm payrolls which are estimated at 165K and the unemployment rate of 4.1%.
