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February 3, 2025
DOW: 44,493
S&P: 6007
Nasdaq: 19,943
10YR T-Note: 4.51%
Bitcoin: 98,758
VIX: 17,72
Gold: $2858
Crude Oil: $72.65
Prices Current as of 11:11 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In one of the worst intraday comedowns seen in a long time, the market went from being very strong earlier in the session until around 1pm as it surrendered early gains and closed broadly lower Friday after the White House said President Donald Trump would impose promised tariffs on key U.S. trading partners.
As a result of this downside wipeout, the indices posted their first weekly loss in three weeks.
The President said that he will put in place 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on goods from China effective Saturday. The White House provided no word on whether there would be any exemptions to the measures that could result in swift price increases to U.S. consumers.
The earlier gains had helped shave losses from the start of the week over worries that the artificial-intelligence boom may not require as much investment as thought.
The Dow turned a gain of as much as 172 into a closing decline of 337 down to 44,544 led by declines in CVX on earnings, SHW and NVDA after its C.E.O. had a meeting with the President earlier in the day. Unfortunately this one declined by 16% this past week.
Other losers were even worse as the S&P turned a 49 point gain into a closing loss of 30 to 6040 after its highest level would have been a record close of 6120.
The Nasdaq was another disaster as the NDX, which is mainly technology issues, went from a 338 point advance into a closing decline of 30, would you believe it?
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks followed the main guys lower and ended down 20 to 2287 while the VIX went from a low of 14.80 as the market was on its high to a closing gain up to 16.43.
AAPL went from an early gain of 10 points (and what was that about, to a closing decline of less than 2.The company had reported stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The current most valuable company, mainly due to the awful recent performances from NVDA and MSFT said that sales of iPhones dipped. But revenue for its services businesses, such as AppleCare and its app store, rose to a record.
It still ended higher at 235 than its recent lows around 220 after a constant unrelenting series of downgrades from almost every “expert” on the planet and for their bullish efforts, around 650,000 upside calls went out worthless for their troubles.
KLAC, a supplier to the electronics industry initially rose after reporting profit and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, but then closed down, would you believe it? The company, which credited its results on expanding artificial-intelligence and high-performance computing investments, fell on Monday. That is when tech stocks around the world tumbled, after a Chinese upstart, Deep seek, said it developed a large language model capable of competing with the world’s best, without having to use top-flight chips.
The disruption raised questions about whether all the investment expected for AI chips, data centers and electricity is really needed.
Worries that tariffs could end up driving inflation higher helped push long-term bond yields higher, including the 10-year Treasury, which rose to 4.54% from 4.52% late Thursday.
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged as it closed out its most recent meeting Wednesday. The central bank is signaling a more cautious approach as it waits to see how policies under the new President will impact inflation and the broader economy. Higher tariffs and tax cuts could push inflation higher, while deregulation could possibly reduce it.
Markets are on edge watching the President’s plans to raise tariffs and tighten immigration policies, since both are pressuring the Fed to keep interest rates elevated.
WBA dropped 10% after suspending its dividend and breaking a streak of quarterly payouts to its shareholders that stretches back more than 90 years.
XOM went lower even though the energy giant issued a stronger profit for the fourth quarter than expected. It credited increased production in the U.S. Permian basin and in Guyana for the strong results, but its revenue came in lower than expected.
Unfortunately, similar to last Monday when the Deep seek concerns resulted in an awful day, stocks are tanking again, this time over fears of a trade war between the U.S. and other countries such as Mexico, Canada and China as a result of the President’s imposition of tariffs again these areas and their threat to do the same against the U.S.
This week the 4Q earnings parade continues with the following lineup: today – TSN higher and CLX, FN, NXPI, RMBS and PLTR tonight; Tuesday – Dow components AMGN, MRK plus AMD, GOOG, KKR, PFE, SPOT, and PEP; Wednesday – ARM, BSX, MSTR, NYT and Dow component DIS; Thursday – Dow components AMZN and HON plus BMY, FTNT, LLY, RL, SKX, HSY.
Economic reports will see: today – December construction spending, December ISM manufacturing index; Tuesday – December factory orders; Wednesday – December trade deficit; Thursday – weekly jobless claims; Friday – January nonfarm payrolls which are estimated at 165K and the unemployment rate of 4.1%.
