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February 27, 2025
Dow: 43,860
S&P: 5977
Nasdaq: 19,041
10-YR T-Note: 4.29%
Bitcoin: 86,240
Gold: 2,901
Crude Oil: 69.85
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In a disappointing day that managed to finally end the four-day losing streaks for the S&P and Nasdaq with the Dow lower for a change, things were not able to hold strong morning sessions and just about finished nominally higher for the first two items.
The Dow, which gained 235 points in the morning, just gave it up and ended with a closing loss of 188 down to 43,433 led by declines in some of the old-time stocks that had done well for a couple of days such as AMGN, BA, JNJ, MCD and UNH.
The S&P followed the same awful pattern as it also turned a strong 54 point gain into a closing nominal advance of 1 point to 5956 as some technology stocks did better despite awful showings from AAPL and TSLA in addition to strength in financials for a change.
The Nasdaq got as high as a 260 point advance which then turned into a closing one of 49 to 19,078 as some technology strength helped the nominally positive close, while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks ended a little higher by 4 to 2174 on some finance strength. The VIX managed to drop a bit to 19.10 but has maintained a higher range on the recent poor showing in the indices.
The stock market has generally been struggling after some weaker reports on the economy, including a couple that showed U.S. households that showed some more concern about inflation and tariffs pushed by the President. These have negatively impacted the large tech stocks and others of the higher-growth nature whose incredible momentum had earlier seemed unstoppable.
SMCI, one of the stocks that had soared in the frenzy around AI technology, lost nearly a quarter of its value over four days, for example. But it jumped 12% yesterday after filing its annual report for its fiscal year that ended in June.
The company, which sells servers used in AI, had delayed filing its annual report and other required forms after its former accounting firm had raised concerns about some of its financial reporting and governance. The company then had to get extensions from Nasdaq to file the financial reports as it conducted a review and hired another public accounting firm.
Much of the market’s attention remained on NVDA, the chip company that had for become the poster child of the AI rush. It rose 3.7% ahead of its latest profit report, which arrived after trading ended for the day.
It was the first earnings report since a Chinese upstart, Deep seek, upended the AI industry by saying it developed a large language model that can compete with big U.S. rivals without having to use the most expensive chips. That called into question all the spending assumed would go into not only their chips but also the ecosystem that is built around the AI boom, including electricity to power large data centers.
Some Big Tech companies have since said they still plan to invest billions of dollars into AI, an encouraging signal for the industry.
NRG Energy jumped after announcing it is joining with GEV and a subsidiary of Kiewit on a venture to generate more electricity for generative AI data centers.
NRG also reported results for the latest quarter that topped analysts’ expectations. Most of the other companies in the S&P have likewise been delivering better profits for the end of 2024 than analysts expected.
Off-price retailer TJX rose after joining the parade. The company behind TJ Maxx and Marshalls additionally said it plans to increase its dividend 13% and announced a program to buy up to $2.5 billion of its stock.
Worries have been rising about whether U.S. shoppers may cut back on their spending given stubbornly high inflation and jitters about the economy’s prospects. But they said that the company has benefited from its off-price model and sees opportunities to grow over the long term.
GM Motors finally gained after the automaker announced a program to buy back up to $6 billion of its stock. It will also send more cash to its shareholders by increasing its dividend.
On the losing end, AAP tumbled by 18% after the retailer said it made less profit from each $1 of revenue during the latest quarter than a year earlier, in part because of liquidation sales at stores it closed.
In the bond market, Treasury yields fell again after dropping sharply in recent days on worries about the U.S. economy, as the 10-year Treasury sank to 4.24% from 4.30% late Tuesday. It had been nearing 4.80% just last month.
The fourth-quarter earnings season finally comes to an end with the following – yesterday – INTU, WDAY, FSLR, AXOM. PM, LOW higher and CAR, LCID, AAP lower; today – SNOW, SNPS, AI, NTNX, SJM,WB higher and EBAY, PARA, SG and Dow component CRM lower in addition to BBWI; tonight - DELL, ADSK.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – January new home sales fell to 67,000; today - January durable goods orders up 3.9%, weekly jobless claims rose to 242K, 4Q G.D.P second reading stayed the same at 2.3%; Friday – January Personal Income report (P.C.E.), which is always important to the Fed.
