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February 25, 2025
Dow: 43,393
S&P: 5943
Nasdaq: 19,021
10-YR T-Note: 4.31%
Bitcoin: 89,185
VIX: 19.2
Gold: 2,944
Crude Oil: 70.26
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In what turned out to be a weak session after a strong start which could not hold, the Dow was the only index that managed to eke out a very nominal gain while the others ended lower.
For instance, it started with a 270 point advance which it gave in the late stages of the session and ended with a 33 point close to 43,461 and was led by AMGN, BA, DIS, MCD and NKE, most of which have not done well this year.
The S&P really did poorly as it began with a nice 30 point advance which it could not hold and then in the last half-hour, it took a nose-dive to end right near its low with a 29 point loss down to 5983 with only AAPL able to hold onto a gain while the other main ones sold off again, and this continues the pattern that began last Thursday.
The Nasdaq did even worse, as a 120 point higher start also could not hold as this one got really smashed in the last half-hour and ended lower by 237 down to 19,286.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks did nothing once again and ended down 17 to2178 on some financial weakness while the VIX moved higher up to 18.98
BRK rose for one of the market’s bigger gains after Warren Buffett’s company reported a jump in operating profits for the latest quarter. But even there, the good news came with a bit of caution.
The owner of Geico, BNSF railroad and other businesses said over the weekend that it is sitting on a mountain of $334.2 billion in unused cash. Such a large amount could indicate Buffett, who is famous for buying stocks when prices are low, may not see much worth purchasing in a market that critics say looks too expensive.
SBUX gained after saying it would cut 1,100 corporate jobs and leave several hundred more positions unfilled as they are trying to make it a leaner operation.
DPZ sank after reporting results for the latest quarter that just missed analysts’ expectations. Its international operations were a standout, but a closely tracked sales trend weakened for corporate-owned U.S. stores.
Big companies have broadly been reporting better profits for the last three months of 2024 than analysts expected, which is one of the main reasons that the S&P set a record before sliding at the end of last week.
The main one is NVDA and Wednesday evening it will give its first profit report since a Chinese upstart, Deep seek, upended the artificial-intelligence industry by saying it developed a large language model that can compete with big U.S. rivals without having to use the top-flight, most expensive chips.
That called into question all the spending assumed would go into not only its chips but also the ecosystem that’s built around the AI boom, including electricity to power large data centers.
There is very little room for it to disappoint analyst profit expectations this year, given its assumed leadership position in AI, already elevated valuations, and new developments and entrants in the space that could threaten its dominance over time, according to an analyst report today, which is taking the pessimistic side, to say the least.
Recent reports have shown that consumer sentiment is souring as expectations for inflation worsen, in part because of tariffs and foreign relation policies advocated by the President.
Stubbornly high inflation could prevent any further relief from the Federal Reserve from lowering rates again, which is not helping for the time being.
In the bond market, Treasury yields eased ahead of the upcoming reports. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.40% from 4.43% late Friday.
In stock markets abroad, German stocks ticked higher, and the DAX advanced 0.6% after political conservatives won an election dominated by concerns about Europe’s largest economy.
The fourth-quarter earnings season finally comes to an end with the following – yesterday – DPZ; today – ZM, HIHS, TEM lower and Dow component HD higher; tonight - SAM, INTU, PSG, WDAY; Wednesday – CHE, EBAY, LOW, TJX and Dow components, NVDA and CRM; TJX; Thursday – ADSK, DELL, ADSK, JMS.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – Chicago Fed National Activity Index slipped to -0.3; today – February Consumer Confidence fell to 64.7 from 71.1; Wednesday – January new home sales; Thursday – January durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims, 4Q G.D.P; Friday – January Personal Income report (P.C.E.), which is always important to the Fed.
