.png)
February 18, 2025
Dow: 44,463
S&P: 6,120
Nasdaq: 20,058
10-YR T-Note: 4.52%
Bitcoin: 96,264
Gold: $2,930
Crude Oil: 71.1
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market ended the week on Friday with the S&P trying to reach a new high but it fell back nominally at the close.
In the meantime, the Dow fell back due to selloffs, particularly in PG, which has done nothing this year, in addition to AMGN, CRM, SHW and UNH, which have also done very little as well. It ended down by 165 to 44,546.
The S&P barely budged and slipped by .44 and ended at 6114 after being above the previous high of 6118 in the morning. But it still closed out its first winning week in the last three thanks in part to reports showing companies made even fatter profits at the end of 2024 than analysts expected. This has helped the market power through a range of worries centered on higher interest rates and stubborn inflation.
ABNB climbed after reporting stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected as customers booked more nights on its platform. WYNN jumped after likewise topping earnings expectations, thanks in part to strength for its Las Vegas operations.
On the losing side was AMAT, which dropped as the company, whose products help make semiconductor chips, displays and other tech, also reported stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. But it gave a forecasted range for upcoming revenue whose midpoint fell short of expectations.
Treasury yields fell after a report said retail sales in January fell by 0.9% and 0.4% excluding autos. Bad weather, including cold temperatures in the South and devastating wildfires in California, may have helped keep shoppers away from stores and auto dealerships.
This past week featured a couple pf higher reports for the C..I. and P.P.I. that showed inflation unexpectedly accelerated last month. Besides squeezing tighter on U.S. households’ budgets, such stubbornly high inflation is likely to keep the Fed on hold for a while when it comes to providing lower rates.
Inflation may feel more upward pressure from tariffs that the President has announced recently. So far, though, the stock market has taken such threats in stride. The belief is that Trump is using tariffs as a tool for negotiation, and he may ultimately avoid a global trade war.
His most recent tariff announcement, for example, won’t take full effect for at least several weeks. That leaves time for Washington and other countries to negotiate and hopefully lessen the ultimate shock.
Tariffs on Chinese goods have gone into effect and all of the other things that have been discussed — reciprocal tariffs, steel and aluminum tariffs, and tariffs on Canada and Mexico — haven’t actually gone into effect, yet. So that opens the door to the negotiations.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.47% from 4.54% late Thursday. The Fed warned at the end of 2024 it may not cut rates by as much in 2025 because of worries about inflation staying stubbornly high. Its goal is to keep inflation at 2%, and lower rates can give inflation more fuel.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 3.7% for one of the biggest moves. Technology stocks were particularly strong, including big rallies for video games firm Tencent, smartphone maker Xiaomi and e-commerce firm BABA.
Fourth-quarter earnings season is winding down with the following reports this week: today – CDNS higher; tonight - DVN, OXY, TOL, ANET; Wednesday – CVNA, CAKE, ETSY, GRMN, TOST, WING; Thursday – Dow component WMT, BABA, XYZ, BKNG, RIVN, SHAK, U, DBX, TXRW.
Economic reports will see: today – February Empire NY Manufacturing Survey, January housing market index; Wednesday – January housing starts and building permits, minutes of last F.O.M.C meeting; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, January Philly Fed Index, January L.E.I. index; Friday – U. of Michigan final February Consumer Sentiment Survey.
