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February 14, 2025
DOW: 44,700
S&P: 6,119
Nasdaq: 19,970
10-YR T-Note: 4.47%
Bitcoin: 96,600
VIX: 15.03
Gold: $2,945
Crude Oil: $71.3
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Despite another inflation report that came in a little higher than expected and all kinds of news about tariffs, the market once again turned its back on the potentially negative news and underwent a tremendous upside rally yesterday which took it close to record highs.
The Dow ended with a large gain of 343 to 44,722 with 26 out of its 30 members high and it was led by another strong surge in AAPL plus SHW, HD and V.
The S&P did much better with a 63 point gain up to 6115 led by large technology gains as for instance META rallied for the 19th straight record high and pulled the index into within 0.1% of its best close ever.
The Nasdaq gained 295 to 19,945 also helped by the large technology issues and TSLA rallied again after it had declined by 130 points from its all-time high, so this one is trying to regain its earlier composure.
The Russell 2000 Index came along for the upside ride with a 26 point gain to 2282 and the VIX once again went in the opposite direction of the market with a decline down to 15.10.
The market basically ignored all of the latest tariff news from the President, which may not take full effect for at least several weeks.
MGM Resorts leaped to one of the market’s biggest gains, 17.5%, after reporting stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It cited growth in China and said trends are looking up for its Las Vegas and North American digital businesses.
Other companies reporting better profit than expected included GE HealthCare Technologies, TAP, and HOOD.
Such reports, along with a remarkably solid U.S. economy, have kept U.S. stocks near their records. The latest weekly jobless claims rose to 213,000 which was a drop from the prior week and was the latest signal of a firm job market, even though there are some downward forces weighing on stock prices.
Among them are worries about stubbornly high inflation as the January P.P.I. said that inflation at the wholesale level was higher than economists expected last month, following a similar report from the day before on inflation that consumers are dealing with. The report yesterday said that it rose by 0.4% last month and 3.5% over the year while excluding food and energy it was 0.3% and 3.6%..
Tariffs could hurt inflation even further. And Trump on Thursday rolled out his plan to increase U.S. tariffs on imports from other countries that will be customized, based in part on how much tax each country charges on U.S. goods.
While economists warn about the pain such tariffs can create, financial markets have increasingly taken the threats in stride. Belief is strong that the President is using tough talk to drive negotiations, but he may not fully go through with it in order to avoid damaging the stock market and the economy.
It could take weeks or a few months to complete the necessary reviews for the tariffs announced on Thursday, according to a senior White House official who insisted on anonymity to preview the details on a call with reporters. That implies plenty of time for negotiations that could ease the ultimate impact.
Of course, investors believe that the stock market is serving as a guardrail hemming in Trump may prove dangerous. If the stock market keeps gliding through each escalating threat, it could embolden him to make even bigger moves.
Trump followed through on a 10% tariff on Chinese products. GE HealthCare said Thursday it took those tariffs into account when it drew up its forecasts for profit and other financial measures in 2025.
On the downside, DE fell after reporting drops in its revenue and profit for the latest quarter. The farm equipment manufacturer said it was focused on reducing inventory amidst the “uncertain market conditions” its customers were facing.
RDDT, the online message board, dropped even as it handily outdistanced fourth quarter sales and profit targets.
And Dow component CSCO gained after reporting stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It cited strength for a wide range of its products, including for artificial-intelligence infrastructure.
In the bond market, Treasury yields eased. While hotter-than-expected inflation data typically sends yields higher, economists saw some encouraging nuggets underneath the surface in Thursday’s report. Easier health care services costs, for example, could end up helping to pull a different measure of inflation lower, one that the Federal Reserve considers a better measuring stick than the consumer price or producer price indexes.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.53% from 4.63%.
Earnings this week for the 4Q are starting to wind down and we will see: yesterday – Dow component CSCO higher in addition to RH, MGM, APP, BROS, MCO while RDDT, TTD, DE are down; today - WYNN, ABNB, DKNG, ROKU are up while COIN, PANW and, MRNA, AMAT are lower.
Economic reports will have: yesterday – January P.P.I. also came in a little higher than expected at a gain of 0.4% and 0.3% excluding food and energy while year over year they were 3.5% and 3.6% respectively weekly jobless claims came in at 213K; today – January retail sales were down by 0.9%, the lowest since March 2023 while excluding autos were off by 0.4%, January import prices were up by 0.3% while export prices gained 2.7%, January industrial production and capacity utilization.
