.png)
February 12, 2025
DOW: 44,286
S&P: 6,018
Nasdaq: 19,643
10-YR T-Note: 4.63%
Bitcoin: $94,931
VIX: 16.83
Gold: $2,887
Crude Oil: 72.95
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market held relatively firm on Tuesday following the President’s latest tariff escalation and after the Federal Reserve hinted interest rates may not change for a while.
The Dow did the best of all with a 123 point advance to 44,595 led by, of all things AAPL, on some sort of AI combination with BABA, KO on earnings, IBM and JPM.
The S&P was on both sides of unchanged before sneaking out a very late 2 point advance to 6088 led by AAPL, META up for the 16th straight session, some financials and homebuilders.
The Nasdaq ended lower due to another poor day for TSLA, which is down by 140 points from its recent December high on the euphoria over his backing the winning candidate, and that rise has all but vanished.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks came down by 12 to 2275 while the VIX rose a bit to 16.02 due to the mixed index closes.
The overall market did okay in the sense that it was the market’s first trading since those 25% tariffs on all foreign steel and aluminum coming into the country.
The moves were modest not only for U.S. stocks but also in the bond market, where Treasury yields rose by only a bit.
The threat of a possible trade war is very real, of course, with high potential stakes. Most investors agree that substantial and sustained tariffs would raise prices for the U.S. and ultimately lead to difficulties for financial markets around the world. The European Unions’ chief said on Tuesday that “unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered — they will trigger firm and proportionate countermeasures.”
But trading remained mostly calm in part because Trump has shown he can be quick to pull back such threats. That is what he did earlier with 25% tariffs he had announced for all imports from Canada and Mexico, suggesting tariffs may be merely a negotiating chip rather than a true long-term policy. That in turn has many investors hoping the worst-case scenario may not happen.
Much of the focus was on Fed Charman Jerome Powell who said again in testimony on Capitol Hill that there is no hurry to lower rates again for the time being.
The Fed had cut its main interest rate sharply through the end of last year, hoping to give a boost to the economy. But worries about inflation potentially staying stubbornly high have forced the Fed and traders alike to cut back expectations for cuts in 2025. Some traders are even betting on the possibility of zero, in part because of worries about the effects of tariffs.
“We’re in a pretty good place,” Powell said about where the economy and interest rates are currently. He said again he is aware that going too slowly on rate cuts could damage the economy, while moving too quickly could push inflation higher.
One way that companies can offset such downward pressure on their stock prices is to deliver stronger profits. And big U.S. companies have been mostly doing just that recently, as they report how much profit they made recently and in some cases that is not enough.
For instance, MAR fell even though it reported a better profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Investors focused instead on its forecasted range for an important underlying measure of profit this upcoming year, which fell short of what analysts were expecting.
HUM sank despite reporting a milder loss than analysts expected. The insurer and health care company offered a forecast for profit in 2025 that fell short of expectations.
Helping to offset such losses was Dow component KO, which gained after reporting stronger profit and revenue than analysts expected. Growth in China, Brazil and the United States helped lead the way.
DD also gained after the chemical company likewise reported better profit than expected.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.53% from 4.50% late Monday. The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more closely with expectations for upcoming action by the Fed, held steady. It remained at 4.28%, where it was late Monday.
Earnings this week for the 4Q are starting to wind down and we will see: yesterday – -Dow component KO plus LSCC, DD higher and VRTX, MAR, CG, HUM, CARR lower; today – SHOP, LYFT, Z lower while GILD, DASH, SMCI, CVX are higher; tonight - Dow component CSCO; Thursday – AMAT, COIN, DUK, MCO and DE.
Economic reports will have: today – January C.P.I. was awful at a gain of 0.5% which was the highest since June 2022 and year over year it was 3.3%; Thursday – January P.P.I., weekly jobless claims; Friday – January retail sales, January industrial production and capacity utilization.
