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February 11, 2025
DOW: 44,567.27
S&P: 6,068.64
NASDAQ: 19,659.94
10-YR T-Note: 4.535%
Bitcoin: 94,984.73
VIX: 15.95
Gold: 2,931.2
Crude Oil: 73.33
Prices Current as of 2:44 PM
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In a surprisingly friendly mood, the market fortunately took the latest threat on tariffs in stride and ended with a nice upside day to start the new week.
The Dow gained 167 up to 44,470 behind strength in MCD on earnings, in addition to AMZN, HD and UNH while weakness in AXP, GS and JPM held it back.
The S&P did better with a 40 point advance to 6066 on strength in most of the larger tech stocks, as META advanced for the 16th straight day, along with help from the steel stocks on the imposition of tariffs on foreign steel and also additions by energy issues as well. The index came off a losing week that was worried about how potential tariffs could increase inflation and threaten the economy.
The Nasdaq gained 191 to 19,711 once again on better showings in technology despite the complete collapse of TSLA, which has now declined by 130 points from its early December high. And NVDA, which has been hammered because it is too high by some observers, continued to make a nice comeback move.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks came along for the upside ride with an 8 point advance to 278 while the VIX, in another move opposite to stocks, fell back to 15.81.
The bond market also remained relatively firm, with Treasury yields making only modest moves after Trump said over the weekend that he would announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, as well as other import duties later in the week.
Fear around tariffs has been at the center of market moves recently, and experts say that things can continue this volatile pattern ahead. The price of gold, which often rises when investors are feeling nervous, climbed again Monday to top $2,930 per ounce and set another record. But Trump has shown he can be just as quick to pull back on threats, just like he did with 25% tariffs he had announced on Canada and Mexico last Monday, suggesting they may be merely a negotiating chip rather than a true long-term policy.
Trump, of course, has already gone ahead with 10% tariffs on China. Those will likely affect things by separating winning industries from losing ones, but they won’t necessarily drag the entire market lower. A big, market-wide impact would be more likely if we were to see sustained tariffs on a range of countries including 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Stocks of U.S. steel and aluminum producers jumped Monday, banking on expectations tariffs could help their profits. So NUE,CLF and AA all gained as a result.
Some companies that have to buy steel in their manufacturing swing, but not so sharply. GM, CAT and that pathetic F all ended slightly lower.
Dow component MCD rose even though it said that earnings and revenue for the end of 2024 were just shy of analysts’ expectations. Investors focused instead on better-than-expected strength for restaurants outside the United States, particularly in the Middle East, Japan and other markets with licensed McDonald’s locations.
Big Tech stocks were some of the strongest forces pushing higher with NVDA and AVGO gaining after being pressured last month after that Deep seek upended the U.S. artificial-intelligence boom by saying it had developed a large language model that could perform like the world’s best without having to use the most expensive, top-flight chips. But large U.S. companies have since said they are still planning to put billions of dollars into their AI endeavors.
Such gains helped offset a drop for INCY after the biopharmaceutical company reported weaker profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury held steady at 4.50%, where it was late Friday. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with short-term interest rates, fell to 4.27% from 4.29%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be offering testimony before Congress starting this week, where he could offer more hints about what the Fed is thinking. In December, Fed officials sent financial markets sharply lower after indicating they may cut rates only twice this year. Now, some traders and economists think the Fed may not cut at all.
Earnings this week for the 4Q are starting to wind down and we will see: yesterday – Dow component MCD higher plus ROK and ON, EPC and INCY lower; today -Dow component KO plus LSCC higher and VRTX lower, tonight - SHOP; Wednesday – Dow component CSCO plus CVX; Thursday – AMAT, COIN, DUK, MCO and DE.
Economic reports will have: Wednesday – January C.P.I.; Thursday – January P.P.I., weekly jobless claims; Friday – January retail sales, January industrial production and capacity utilization.
