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February 10, 2025
DOW: 44,456.77
S&P: 6064.11
Nasdaq: 19682.17
10YR T-Note: 4.47%
Bitcoin: 97534
VIX: 16.23
Gold: $2909.12
Crude Oil: $71.90
Prices Current as of 10:12 AM
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After a modestly higher start following the January jobs report on Friday, things got completely unended with the release of the preliminary February U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey at around 10am, and then worsened with the release of new information regarding the President’s additional tariff ideas.
As a result, the Dow collapsed by 444 to 44,203 with large declines in the technology components such as AMZN on a weak earnings outlook, in addition to AAPL, MSFT which has done poorly this year, and HD and SHW.
The S&P did worse with a 57 point decline down to 6025 on the awful technology showing in addition to lower financials for a change. The Nasdaq did the worst of all on those poor tech performances down 288 to 19,523, while the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks got dragged lower by 27 to 2284.
The VIX rose up to 16.54 on its opposite trading with the stock market on a day to day basis lately.
Treasury yields also climbed in the bond market after a discouraging report on Friday morning suggested sentiment is unexpectedly souring among U.S. consumers. The preliminary report from the University of Michigan said U.S. consumers are expecting inflation in the year ahead to hit 4.3%, the highest such forecast since 2023.
That is a full percentage point above what consumers said they were expecting a month earlier, and is the second straight increase of an unusual amount. Economists pointed to the possibility of U.S. tariffs on a wide range of imported products, which the President has proposed and could ultimately push up prices for U.S. consumers.
He said at a White House press conference Friday that he is likely to have an announcement on Monday or Tuesday on “reciprocal tariffs, where a country pays so much or charges us so much, and we do the same.”
The consumer-sentiment data followed a mixed update on the monthly jobs report which showed hiring last month was less than half of December’s rate at 143,000 but it also included encouraging news for workers: The unemployment rate eased down to 1% and average hourly earnings rose by 0.5%. expected.
All the data taken together could keep the Federal Reserve on hold when it comes to interest rates. The Fed started to cut the funds rate in order to relax the pressure on the economy and job market, but it warned at the end of the year that it may cut fewer times in 2025 than earlier expected given worries about inflation staying stubbornly high.
Financial markets could stay shaky in the near term, not only because of uncertainty about interest rates but also about Trump’s tariffs and other unknowns around the world.
After rocking financial markets at the start of this week, worries about a potentially punishing trade war had eased a bit after Trump gave 30-day reprieves for tariffs on both Mexico and Canada.
In the meantime, stocks of big U.S. companies continue to swing as they report how much profit they made during the last three months of 2024. Most are reporting better results than expected, which is typical, but that’s not always enough.
AMZN beat estimates at the end of 2024, but its stock nevertheless fell 4%. Investors focused instead on its forecast for upcoming revenue, which fell short of analysts’ expectations.
Homebuilders also tumbled to sharp losses as fewer cuts to interest rates by the Fed could help keep mortgage rates on the higher side as DHI and LEN both dropped.
EXPE jumped by 17% after reporting better profit for the last three months of 2024 than analysts had forecast.
Its C.E.O. said that demand for travel during the latest quarter was stronger than expected, and the company is also bringing back its dividend for investors. It had suspended its payouts to shareholders in 2020 after the COVID-19 pandemic crushed the travel industry.
In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.48% from 4.44% late Thursday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, rose more. It climbed to 4.28% from 4.22%.
A fear among economists is that when U.S. households expect inflation to be high in the future, they could begin buying things in advance and making other moves that can lead to a self-fulfilling cycle that worsens inflation. That could push the Fed to keep the federal funds rate higher than it otherwise would.
Earnings this week for the 4Q are starting to wind down and we will see: today – Dow component MCD higher and ON lower; tonight - VRTX; Tuesday – Dow component KO plus SHOP; Wednesday – Dow component CSCO plus CVX; Thursday – AMAT, COIN, DUK, GEV, MCO and DE.
Economic reports will have: Wednesday – January C.P.I.; Thursday – January P.P.I., weekly jobless claims; Friday – January retail sales, January industrial production and capacity utilization.
