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December 30, 2024
DOW: 42,340
S&P: 5,876
Nasdaq: 19,373
10YR T-Note: 4.54%
Bitcoin: 91,852
VIX: 19.08
Gold: 2,622.00
Crude Oil:71.24
Prices Current as of 10 :04 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After starting the first two days of the holiday-shortened week on the strong side, things cooled off a bit to end the week, and Friday the market did really poorly.
As a result, the Dow ended lower by a large 333 down to 42,992 with 38 of its 30 members lower. The S&P also ended down by a large 67 to 5971 with large declines in the leading big technology issues but the index actually ended nominally higher for the week because of that early strength as mentioned above. Stocks fell broadly on Friday as Wall Street closed out a holiday-shortened week on a down note.
The losses were made worse by sharp declines for the Big Tech stocks known as the “Magnificent 7”, which can heavily influence the direction of the market because of their large size. And overall breadth numbers for the market were awful by a negative 1 to 3 downside ratio.
The Nasdaq also did very poorly with a decline of 298 down to 19,722 hurt by those large technology losses but it also ended slightly higher for the week. The Russell 2000 Index, which everyone got excited about on Thursday because it had the nerve to do better while the S&P and the Nasdaq fell, got clobbered itself with a 35 point selloff down to 2244.
And the VIX came back up again with a rise to 15.85 as that loss on Tuesday put it too close to the strong 13 level to make much further upside progress.
Retailers also declined after doing better early in the week as investors are closely watching for clues on how they performed during the holiday shopping season.
Despite Friday’s drop, the market is ending the year with a potential strong finish with the S&P gaining around 25% this year which would mark a second consecutive yearly gain of more than 20%, the first time that has happened since 1997-1998.
The gains have been driven partly by upbeat economic data showing that consumers continued spending and the labor market remained strong. Inflation, while still high, has also been steadily easing.
As far as the famous Santa Claus rally is concerned, namely the last five days of the old year and the first two of the new year, the S&P is now down slightly from 5974 to 5971 with two remaining days of trading in 2024 and the first two in 2025.
For the entire month of December, the S&P is off by 1%. Since 1950, a December decline is unusual as the index has been positive 56 times over these past 75 years. But if it does end the month lower, January also was down 10 out of those 19 times and the index ended with a loss for the entire year five times.
This December decline in the Dow is lower by 4.3% entering today, which is its worst month since April but ahead by 14% so far this year, the best since 2021. That S&P loss of 1% is also the worst month since April as well but the index is up for five straight quarters, also the best since 2021 while the Nasdaq is higher for the month by 2.6% and up for five out of the past six quarters which is the best in six years.
The stream of upbeat economic data and easing inflation has caused the latter to come closer to the central bank’s target of 2%, but it remains stubbornly above that mark and worries about it heating up again have tempered the forecast for more interest rate cuts.
Inflation concerns have added to uncertainties heading into 2025, which include the labor market’s path ahead and shifting economic policies under the incoming new President. Worries have risen that his preference for tariffs and other policies could lead to more inflation, a bigger U.S. government debt and difficulties for global trade.
AMED gained after the home health care and hospice services provider agreed to extend the deadline for its sale to UNH. The Justice Department had sued to block the $3.3 billion deal, citing concerns the combination would hinder access to home health and hospice services in the U.S.
The move to extend the deadline comes ahead of an expected shift in regulatory policy under the new President as the incoming administration is expected to have a more permissive approach to dealmaking and is less likely to raise antitrust concerns.
In Asia, Japan’s benchmark index surged as the yen remained weak against the dollar. Stocks in South Korea fell after the main opposition party voted to impeach the country’s acting leader.
Markets in Europe gained ground.
Bond yields held relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.62% from 4.59% late Thursday. The yield on the two-year Treasury remained at 4.33% from late Thursday.
Earnings this week will see: nothing of note.
Economic reports will have: today – December Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, November pending home sales; Thursday – November Construction Spending, weekly jobless claims; Friday – December ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index.
