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December 20, 2024
DOW: 42,360
S&P: 5,854
Nasdaq: 19,252
10YR T-Note: 4.51%
Bitcoin: 95,835
VIX: 22.59
Gold: 2,632.40
Crude Oil:68.61
Prices Current as of 09 :48 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
In what turned out to be a weaker session after the major indices could not hold large early gains, the market ended mostly lower with only the Dow eking out a nominal gain of only 15 points after being ahead by 461 on the opening. It was helped by AMZN, AAPL, NVDA in addition to BA, GS, IBM and V.
The S&P really ended up poorly as a large early gain of 63 could not hold and it had the nerve to end 5 points lower on a very weak showing in MU on earnings, COST, ADBE and TLSA which has finally started to come down after a tremendous upside recent run.
The Nasdaq did the worst of all with an early 231 point gain becoming a 19 point decline on MU and some other technology issues while the weak Russell 2000 Index of small stocks came down again by 10 to 2221.
The VIX finally cooled off from its second best ever all-time one-day gain and ended at 24.09, still much higher than it has recently been after Wednesday’s historic downside disaster.
What has upset the market has been the wipeout after the Federal Reserve said it may deliver fewer cuts to interest rates next year than earlier thought.
This week’s struggles have taken some of the enthusiasm out of the market, which critics had been warning was overly bought and would need everything to go correctly for it to justify its high prices. But indexes remain near their records and the S&P is still on track for one of its recent best years with a gain of 23%.
Traders are now expecting the Federal Reserve to deliver just one or maybe two cuts to interest rates next year, according to data from CME Group. Some are even betting on none. A month ago, the majority saw at least two cuts in 2025 as a safe bet.
MU was the day’s disaster as it collapsed by 16% despite reporting stronger profit for the latest quarter than expected. The computer memory company’s revenue fell short of and the C.E.O. said it expects demand from consumers to remain weaker in the near term. It gave a forecast for revenue in the current quarter that fell well short of what analysts were thinking.
LW, which makes French fries and other potato products, dropped 20% after falling short of expectations and it also cut its financial targets for the fiscal year, saying demand for frozen potatoes is continuing to soften, particularly outside North America. The company replaced its chief executive.
Such losses helped overshadow a 15% jump for DRI, the company behind Olive Garden and other chains. It delivered profit for the latest quarter that edged past analysts’ expectations. The operator of Long Horn Steakhouses, which is owned by DRI, also gave a forecast for revenue for this fiscal year that topped analysts’.
CAN rose 7% after the professional services company likewise topped expectations for profit in the latest quarter and said it saw growth around the world, and the company raised its forecast for revenue this fiscal year.
AMZN rose even as workers at seven of its facilities went on strike in the middle of the online retail giant’s busiest time of the year. The company says it doesn’t expect an impact on its operations during what the workers’ union calls the largest strike against the company in history.
In the bond market, yields were mixed a day after shooting higher on expectations that the Fed would deliver fewer cuts to rates in 2025. Reports on the U.S. economy came in mixed as the final reading for 3Q G.D.P. rose to 3.1%, weekly jobless claims declined down to 220,000 while November L.E.I. rose by 0.3% and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey for December fell to its lowest level of the year at -16.4.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday – MU, LEN, CTAS and CAG lower and ACN, KMX, FDS, DRI, PAYX higher; today – Dow component NKE lower and FDX higher.
Economic reports will have: yesterday – final estimate of 3Q G.D.P. came in higher at 3.1%, November L.E.I. later gained 0.3%, weekly jobless claims fell to 220K which was down -22K, December Philadelphia Fed Business Index fell to -16.4%, the lowest of the year; today – November P.C.E. came in slightly better than expected with the monthly number up by 2.4% and year over year it was 2.8% while the core rate year over year up by 2.9% after a gain of 0.1% monthly, November personal income and spending each rose by 0.3%.
