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August 15, 2024
DOW: 40,347
S&P: 5517
Nasdaq: 17,492
10YR T-Note: 3.92%
Bitcoin: 59,475
VIX: 14,87
Gold: $2484
Crude Oil: $77,69
Prices Current as of 10:32 am
Source: CNBC
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
The market edged higher once again yesterday after the latest update on inflation came in almost exactly as economists expected.
The Dow ended up 242 to 40,008 to finish a day above the 40,000 level for the first time in nearly two weeks. It was led mainly by strength in financials such as AXP, GS, JPM, TRV in addition to UNH.
The S&P ended 20 points higher to 5455 as some technology stocks did better in addition to those financials and energy issues while the Nasdaq sort of lagged a bit and ended up by 5 to 17,192 as GOOG was weak on the potential antitrust measures.
The Russell 2000 once again lagged with an 11 point decline down to 2084 while the VIX continued to collapse down from that ridiculous 66 level from early last week down to 16.18 and how do you like that?
Treasury yields were also relatively steady in the bond market after the July C.P.I. report came in with a gain of 0.2% and the same for ex-food and energy. Year over year it was ahead by 2.9%, which was the lowest since March 2021 and 3.2% for the year in the latter category.
The data should keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut its main interest rate in September, a move that investors have long been looking forward to. The Fed has been keeping rates at high levels to combat inflation that topped 9% two years ago, and lower interest rates would ease the pressure on both the economy and on prices for investments.
The only question is how big the first rate cut since the 2020 COVID crash will be: the traditional quarter of a percentage point or a more dramatic half point?
While the economy is still growing, and many economists see a recession as unlikely, worries have risen about its strength after a much worse than expected jobs report in July.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 3.83% from 3.85% late Tuesday. It has been coming down since topping 4.70% in April, as expectations have built for coming cuts to interest rates.
The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, edged up to 3.95% from 3.94% late Tuesday, as traders weigh whether September’s anticipated cut will be the traditional or jumbo-sized move.
K rose by 8% after Mars said it would buy the company behind Pringles, Cheez-Its and Kellogg’s for $83.50 per share in cash. The companies put the deal’s total value at $35.9 billion, including debt. K was created when the Kellogg Co. split into three companies in the summer of 2022.
CAH gained 4% after joining the parade of companies that have reported stronger profit for the spring than analysts expected.
On the losing end was EAT, the company behind Chili’s and Maggiano’s restaurants. It fell 11% after reporting weaker profit for the latest quarter than expected. That was despite strengthening sales trends at Chili’s, which got a boost from higher prices, increased traffic and the launch of its “Big Smasher” burger. Expectations were high coming into its report, and the stock is still up 46% for the year so far.
SBUX fell 2% to give back some of its big gain from the prior day after it said it had lured Brian Niccol away from CMG to become its CEO.
And once again, today’s economic numbers are indicating a higher start today and let’s see if we can go the distance. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has been the center of financial markets’ wildest action in recent weeks, and it rose 0.6% following a day of ups and downs. Japan’s embattled Prime Minister surprised the country Wednesday by announcing he will step down when his party picks a new leader next month.
Earnings for the second-quarter come to an end this week with the following: yesterday – CAH, FUST higher and TEN, EAT lower; today – Dow components CSCO and WMT higher in addition to LITE; tonight - BABA, TPR, AMAT and DE.
Economic reports will have: yesterday – July C.P.I. rose by 0.2% while ex-food and energy also gained 0.2%. Year over year the gain was 2.9% and 3.2% respectively; today - weekly jobless claims slipped again to 227,000, July retail sales rose by 0.1% and ex-autos were higher by 0.4%, July industrial production and capacity utilization, July import prices were up by 0.1% and ex-petroleum were higher by 0.2% while export prices were up by 0.7% and up by 1.4% year over year; Friday – July housing starts and mid-month July U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
