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April 9, 2025
Dow: 37,674
S&P: 5004
Nasdaq: 15,488
10-YR T-Note: 4.46%
Bitcoin: 76,085
VIX: 50
Gold: $3,068
Crude Oil: 56.22
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
After the market yesterday went through one of the most revolting downside reversals ever, things got even worse last night and early this morning a investors girded for President Trump's massive tariffs on key US trading partners to take full effect starting Wednesday.
Trump's so-called "reciprocal" tariffs — the announcement of which stunned markets last week — are in full effect as of 12:01 a.m. Wednesday. They continue to bring chaos to investors as stocks ended on another roller-coaster session that ended in a sizable U-turn lower. The S&P crept closer to a bear market, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow ended the session at their lowest levels since January 2024.
China is set to get hit with whopping 104% duties, while Vietnam, Japan, India, and more also stand to face massive tariff hikes. Most US trading partners already face at least a 10% "blanket" tariff that went into effect over the weekend.
The US-China escalation took the spotlight on Tuesday. China vowed to “fight to the end” if necessary, while the White House confirmed plans to jack up tariff rates on the country to 104%, making good on a Trump threat after China retaliated.
Traders took in some other signs of optimism, however, which had sent stocks soaring earlier in Tuesday's session. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Tuesday said he believed "we can end up with some good deals." Japan, facing a 24% tariff, appeared headed for the front of the line for talks. Trump also touted coming talks with South Korea after having a "great call" with its acting prime minister.
This brief period of optimism led to an astoundingly bullish start with the Dow gaining an astounding 1,460 points before reversing sharply lower to end at 37,646, down 320. The S&P turned a 204 point gain into a closing decline of 79 down to 4982 while the Nasdaq was 713 points to the upside before it too collapsed to a closing loss of 335 down to 15,268. The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks ended lower by 49 to 1761 which drove it and the Nasdaq further into bear markets while the VIX jumped to 52.33, the highest since the bear market of post-Covid 2000 era.
Oil dropped to close below $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021. Prices have fallen since President Trump's escalation of the ongoing trade war with China sparked fears about the health of global demand.
West Texas Intermediate futures fell for a fourth straight session to close at $59.58 a barrel before grazing a fresh four-year low after settlement. President Trump is planning to proceed with implementing tariffs that would amount to 104% on many Chinese goods just after midnight.
Crude, along with equities, bonds and other commodities, has been roiled this month as the US president presses on with his aggressive trade policy. The ructions have stoked concerns about a global slowdown or recession that would jeopardize energy demand. At the same time, OPEC+ delivered a bigger-than-expected output hike, hurting the outlook for oil market balances.
Health insurance stocks rallied on Tuesday after the Trump administration said it would boost reimbursement rates for Medicare Advantage plans in 2026. HUM led the gains with an 11% surge, followed by CVS, up 8% and UNH, gaining 7%.
One group that really got hit hard, and what else is new, were the former high-flying technology stocks, as AAPL, NVDA, META and all the rest of them came cashing back down after the announcement of the new China tariffs was released.
Earnings this week will have: yesterday - WDFC lower; today - STZ; Thursday – DAL; Friday – BLK, FAST, JPM, WFC, MS.
Economic reports show: today at 2pm - minutes of last month Fed interest rate decision; Thursday – March C.P.I, weekly jobless claims; Friday – March P.P.I., early April U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
