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April 3, 2025
Dow: 40,695
S&P: 5428
Nasdaq: 16,000
10-YR T-Note: 4.04%
Bitcoin: 82,110
VIX: 27
Gold: $3,115
Crude Oil: 66.25
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
Once again, the market made a tremendous upside turnaround after a sharply lower start, but the mood on turned sour after President Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs against nearly all U.S. trading partners, an action that could drastically remake the global economy.
The Dow began with a sharp decline of 360 but ended higher by 235 to 42,225 with only CVX, MCD and PG lower and these are the ones that had been doing well lately on days when investors moved out of technology issues.
The S&P also made a tremendous upside reversal with a 62 point start turning into a closing gain of 38 to 5671 with many of the beaten-down techs catching a bid while the Nasdaq also did an upside turnaround, going from an early beating of 269 points to a gain of 151 to 17, 661 as beaten-down items like TSLA, AMZN and ORCL finding some buyers on hopes that the middle one would possibly be able to buy Tik-Tok.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks finally came along for the ride with a 33 point gain to 2045 on some financial stock strength and the VIX dipped to 21.51 on the final upward move in stocks.
But unfortunately the President finally announced his so-called “Liberation Day” after the close which appears to be starting out by “Liberating” investors from their money unless things do get better as has taken place recently after disastrous starts. Financial markets around the world have been shaky lately because of uncertainty about Trump’s trade war. He has said he wants tariffs to make the global system fairer and to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States from other countries. But tariffs also threaten to grind down growth for the U.S. and other economies, while worsening inflation when it may be stuck above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
One of the hopes that helped push the U.S. stock market higher this week was the possibility that at least the worst of the uncertainty around tariffs may be passing. Those hopes appear to have been dashed by Trump after the market closed when he declared a 10% baseline tax on imports from all countries and higher tariff rates on dozens of nations that run trade surpluses with the United States.
The President held up a chart while speaking at the White House, showing the United States would charge a 34% tax on imports from China, a 20% tax on imports from the European Union, 25% on South Korea, 24% on Japan and 32% on Taiwan. The new tariffs will come on top of recent announcements of 25% taxes on auto imports ; levies against China, Canada and Mexico, and expanded trade penalties on steel and aluminum.
Among the companies whose shares fell in after-hours trading, LULU was 11%; home products retailer WSM was down 10%; and DECK, the maker of Uggs, was lower by 9%.
Big Tech stocks also fell after the bell, such as AAPL, AMZN and NVDA.
TSLA shares fell in after-hours trading. Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company swung wildly in regular trading, falling in the morning more than 6% following a report that it delivered fewer cars in the first three months of the year than it did in last year’s first quarter, partly due to backlash against Musk’s cost-cutting efforts for the Trump administration. But its stock rebounded and ended with a gain of 5.3% following a report from Politico that Trump has told others that Musk will step back from his government role in coming weeks.
Even before Trump formally announced the details of the tariffs, the market had been worried that the rollout could by itself create enough nervousness to get U.S. households and businesses to cut their spending, which would damage the economy.
Surveys have shown deepening pessimism, but economists are waiting to see if that translates into actual damage for the economy.
Treasury yields swung in the bond market, echoing the indecision seen in the stock market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.12% from 4.18% earlier.
Earnings this week will have: yesterday – PVH higher; today – RH lower; tonight – CAG.
Economic reports will see: yesterday – February factory orders rose by 0.6%; today – February trade balance rose to 122.7 billion, weekly jobless claims fell to 219K; Friday – March nonfarm payrolls report which is expected to show 125,000, down from 151,000 and the unemployment rate, up to 4.2%, up from 4.1%.
