April 2, 2025

In another wildly volatile session, the market did what it had done the day before, namely to swing back and forth between negative, positive, then negative again and finally a late rally to end mainly on the upside, with uncertainty still high about just what the President will announce about tariffs on his “Liberation Day” to be announced right after the market closes at 4pm.

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And sure enough, the swings were pretty wild as the Dow vacillated between a loss of 480 and a gain of 136 before ending lower by 12 at 41,989 and the entirety of the nominal decline was due to a huge beating for JNJ on a court case in addition to selling in AMGN.

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The S&P gained 21 points to 5633 after falling by much more than that as some beaten-down technology stocks did better while the Nasdaq finally got it together with a nice advance of 150 to 17,448 as some really beaten-down ones had a nice moment of upside, such as TSLA, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA and GOOG.

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The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks gained 1 point to 2012 while the VIX dropped to 21.77.

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The market has been particularly shaky lately, and momentum has been swinging not just day to day but also hour to hour because of uncertainty about what Trump will do with tariffs, and by how much they will worsen inflation and grind down growth for economies.

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In the bond market, Treasury yields sank after a report said U.S. manufacturing activity contracted last month to 49, breaking a two-month streak of growth while the prices paid index rose to the highest level since June 2022.  A separate report said U.S. employers were advertising slightly fewer job openings (7.57 million) at the end of February than economists expected.

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Companies are saying they are already feeling effects from the President’s trade war, even with the main event potentially coming today when he will announce a sweeping set of tariffs.

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“Customers are pulling in orders due to anxiety about continued tariffs and pricing pressures,” one computer and electronic products company told the Institute for Supply Management in its monthly manufacturers’ survey.

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“Starting to see slower-than-normal sales in Canada, and concerns of Canadians boycotting U.S. products could become a reality,” a manufacturer in the food, beverage and tobacco products industry said in the ISM’s survey.

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The U.S. economy is still growing, to be sure, and the job market has remained relatively solid even with February’s slightly weaker-than-expected job openings.

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But one of the worries hitting the market is that even if Trump announces less-punishing tariffs than feared on Wednesday, the stop-and-start rollout of his trade strategy may by itself cause U.S. households and businesses to freeze their spending, which would damage the economy. He has pushed for tariffs in part to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States from other countries.

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All the nervousness in the market has helped push the price of gold to records, and it briefly topped $3,175 per ounce Tuesday, which is up from less than $2,700 at the start of the year.

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TSLA charged higher a day ahead of reporting how many vehicles it delivered during the first three months of the year. Worries have grown about a potential backlash from customers, and protestors have been swarming their showrooms due to anger about CEO Elon Musk’s leading the U.S. government’s efforts to cut spending and its stock is still down by roughly a third for the year so far.

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PVH jumped 18% after the company behind the Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It also said it plans to send $500 million to shareholders this year through purchases of its own stock.

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NMAX soared another 179% to follow up on its 735% surge from Monday, which was the first day of trading for the news company’s stock.

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On the losing end was JNJ, which dropped 7.6% after a U.S. bankruptcy court judge denied the company’s settlement plan related to baby powder containing talc. It is the third time the company’s attempt to resolve the baby powder settlement through bankruptcy has been rejected by courts.

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In Europe, Germany’s DAX returned 1.7%, and France’s CAC 40 rose 1.1% after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the world’s biggest trade bloc would nor retreat in the face of U.S. trade demands.

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“Europe holds a lot of cards, from trade to technology to the size of our market. But this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm counter measures if necessary,” von der Leyen said. “All instruments are on the table.”

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In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.16% from 4.23% late Monday and from roughly 4.80% in January. That is a significant move for the bond market, and yields have been falling with worries about a potentially slowing U.S. economy.

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Earnings this week will have: yesterday – PVH higher; tonight - RH; Thursday – CAG.

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Economic reports will see: yesterday – February construction spending rose by 0.7% February JOLTS job openings settled at 7.57 million, March ISM Manufacturing Survey dipped to 49 but the prices paid index rose to 69.4 which was the highest since June 2022; today - February factory orders rose by 9.6%; Thursday – February trade balance, weekly jobless claims; Friday – March nonfarm payrolls report which is expected to show 125,000, down from 151,000 and the unemployment rate, up to 4.2%, up from 4.1%.