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April 16, 2025
Dow: 40,212
S&P: 5339
Nasdaq: 16,511
10-YR T-Note: 4.33%
Bitcoin: 84,021
VIX: 30.44
Gold: $3,323
Crude Oil: 61.80
Don Selkin, the creator and innovator of the "Fair Value" numbers, as its Chief Market Strategist on the Newbridge platform has given CNBC and its Predecessor, these numbers every day for the over 40 years - never missing a single day, as well as given the fair value for the Nasdaq 100 futures since their introduction in 1996 and the Dow Jones stock index futures since 1997. Mr. Selkin has also been quoted in several publications including but not limited to Bloomberg News, New York Post, Reuters, and The New York Times. Mr. Selkin's Fair Value numbers are included in the U.S.
Futures Report broadcast on CNBC every day before the market
opens attributing "Newbridge Securities" as the source. In addition, NSC provides to its professionals, their clients and the public access to Don Selkin's more in depth financial market views.
U.S. stocks drifted Tuesday through a rare quiet day for financial markets, although once again they could not hold onto modest intraday rallies.
As a result, the Dow ended lower by 156 down to 40,368 led by selling on the downside by CAT, SHW, HD, MCD and UNH ahead of its earnings tomorrow.
The S&P also fell a bit, down by 9 to 5397 as some tech stocks sold off a bit and energy and industrials did not do too well either. It had been higher by 45 points in the morning but could not hold it, and what else is new with this pattern?
The Nasdaq fell by 8 to 16,823 but the NDX 100 actually had the nerve to end higher due to gains in NVDA (but watch it get sold off by a lot today as global chip stocks slumped after Washington curbed exports of an AI chip it had tailored for China, further cutting off the crucial growth market for semiconductors in a move that will cost the AI pioneer $5.5 billion in charges.), NFLX which has been strong ahead of its earnings tomorrow after the close and BKNG, which goes back and forth in either direction on a day to day basis.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks drifted lower by xx to xxxx while the VIX had the nerve to go down to 30.12 despite the fact that the indices did end lower.
The modest moves offered some respite following the huge swings that have hurt the market recently, not just day to day but also hour to hour as the market has struggled to keep up with shifts in the President’s trade war, which economists warn could cause a global recession unless it’s scaled back.
Perhaps more importantly, the bond market also showed more signs of calm after its sudden and sharp moves last week raised worries that investors worldwide may no longer see U.S. government bonds as a no-brainer when times are scary.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.33% from 4.38% late Monday. It had pulled back to there from 4.48% at the end of last week after surging from just 4.01% a week earlier. A drop in yields is what usually happens when investors are scared, and this week’s moves offer a return to form for what historically had been seen as one of the safest investments possible.
The value of the U.S. dollar also steadied after tumbling last week, which had raised more worries that Trump’s trade war was degrading its status as a safe-haven investment, as with U.S. Treasury bonds. The dollar’s value ticked higher against the euro and Swiss franc, though it slipped against the British pound.
ACI’s stock fell despite reporting a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected, but the company behind Safeway, Vons and other grocery stores gave a forecast for profit in the upcoming year that was short of analysts’.
DVA sank for a second straight drop after it said a ransomware attack is affecting some of its operations. The health care company said it is still investigating the attack, which it learned about Saturday, and that it can’t yet know the “full scope, nature, and potential ultimate impact.”
On the winning side was BAC, which rose after the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank reported stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
Most big U.S. banks have been reporting strong results for the start of the year, boosted by their stock trading desks taking advantage of all the huge swings caused by Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff announcements. C also topped analysts’ expectations, and its stock rose 1.8%.
PLTR climbed for a second day of gains after NATO said it would use the company’s artificial-intelligence capabilities in its allied command operations.
Even with the market’s modest moves Tuesday, worries continue about the trade war. The United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, have been announcing ever-increasing tariffs on each other’s goods, along with other countermeasures to raise the stakes.
Trump has said he wants to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States, and he also wants to trim how much more his country exports to other countries than it imports.
China’s leadership, meanwhile, has been trying to present itself as a source of “stability and certainty” as it visits countries across Southeast Asia this week.
In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across much of Europe and Asia. Germany’s DAX returned 1.4%, and the FTSE 100 in London climbed 1.4%.
Earnings this week will see: yesterday – BAC, C, ASML, PNC higher, Dow component JNJ lower plus LVMH in Europe; today - IBKR, JBHT, ASML lower and UAL higher in addition to Dow component TRV plus ABT, USB; tonight – AA, CSX; Thursday – Dow components AXP, UNH plus BLK, SCHW, NFLX.
Economic reports will have: today – March retail sales rose by 1.4% while ex-autos it was up by only 0.5%, March industrial production and capacity utilization; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, March housing starts.
